Random Redbird Reasoning

Wrapping it up

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Wed, 08 Feb 2006 14:32:00 +0000

It what has become blatently obvious over the past 3 months, I am going to have to officially shut down my blog. Between work, hobbies, and going back to school for another degree, I don't have the time required to committ to writing on a regular basis. And rather than having a few of you check in from time to time to see if I've finished up my Jocketty trade analysis - I haven't - I would rather just close shop.

I've been enjoying reading Cardinilly and Viva el Birdos - they do a much better job of writing than I ever could, and are much more committed to consistently providing content. You'll see me sticking my head in to both of those blogs and posting comments from time to time. (Robb is the name that I post under.)

Not Quite

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Fri, 21 Oct 2005 12:34:00 +0000

I actually was fortunate enough to go to Game 6 on Wednesday night, thanks to a friend who got tickets and offered me an extra. ("Well, I'll think about it....") We were sitting 12 rows behind home plate and were so jacked about the game that we got there more than 2 hours before game time - in plenty of time to see the Cardinals take batting practice.

Before the game started, I realized that we were sitting right behind Greg Mathews. I didn't say anything to him all night, as I just kind of assumed that he'd want to be left alone. I will note right now, though, for the record, that no one appeared to come to him and say anything all night (other than his friends, of course.) And I must further admit that I didn't remember him having such a solid year in 1987 - so solid, in fact, that he started (and won) Game 1 of the NLCS that season. So I honestly felt kind of bad for not saying something to him during the game. You'd think that a key part of an NL champion team in St. Louis should have at least been recognized by someone. Whatever the case, you'll see that I'm now sponsoring his page on baseball-reference.com. Call it my small part to help remind people. And if any of you happen know Mr. Mathews, send me his email address. I'd like to say something to him properly.

Anyway, I'm not going to break down the game or the series with much, if any, detail. That's been done to death already. I will, however, say that the game was somewhat surreal last night. When Marquis allowed the 4th Astro run of the game, it was pretty obvious that the Cardinals weren't going to get it done. That's when - at least, in my section - people seemed to shift gears from thinking about 2005 to thinking about Busch stadium. Yes, there was still hope that the Cardinals would come back, but it didn't seem all that realistic, or maybe even important.

Once the final out was made, the entire crowd just kind of stood around in silence. People were taking pictures of each other in the stadium for one last time, saying their good-byes. Many stuck around for the video presentation of highlights of Busch (complete with cheesy music - think NBC and the Olympics.)

The post-game mood in the stadium reminded me of a funeral for a long-suffering relative. Fans knew this day was coming, and had known so for a long time. Once the inevitable had finally happened, they were choosing to remember the good rather than focus on the sadness - not only of the stadium, but of the 2005 season. In fact, my personal impression was that the season being over was minor in comparison to the loss of Busch Stadium, the only home that many of us have known for the Cardinals.

My friend and I left shortly after the video presentation, before the players came back onto the field. It felt like the end of an era - and, in reality, I guess it was.

Look for me to finish up the Walk Jocketty trade series sometime over the next few weeks. Yes, I know - I've said that before. And then we'll start looking at contract situations, free agents, and 2006.

Win Expectancy

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Tue, 18 Oct 2005 05:08:00 +0000

Many of you have probably seen this little tool floating around. In a nutshell, Phil Birnbaum took the time to gather the boxscores for every game between 1979 and 1990, with the help of retrosheet. Chris Shea then put together this nifty little calculator that allows you to put in the game situation as an input. It then gives you, as an output, the number of games between 1979 and 1990 that had the same situation, the number of times the team won, and thus a percentage of liklihood that a team can win a game in a certain situation. Check it out for last night's game.

9th inning

Start of the Inning - 5.6% Chance of a Cardinal Victory
John Rodriguez strikeout - 2.4%
John Mabry strikeout - 0.9%
David Eckstein single - 2.7%
David Eckstein steal - 1.1%
Jim Edmonds walk - 5.3%
Albert Pujols Home Run - 82.9%
Reggie Sanders strikeout - 81.1%

Obviously, the system isn't perfect, and the numbers shouldn't be looked at as pure odds. Not every team during the 11 year span in question had Brad Lidge as a closer, or Albert Pujols as a hitter. And the fact that Eckstein actually hurt the teams chances of winning by stealing 2nd is a fluke in the data.

But the fact remains. The Cardinals, with none on and 2 outs, had less than a 1 in 100 chance of winning that game according to this data. On the road, in the playoffs, facing a team that hadn't blown a 9th inning game all season? It was likely even more improbable.

Wow.

Well...

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Tue, 18 Oct 2005 04:20:00 +0000

That was fun.

I said this earlier today:

The truth of the matter is, the wins are more enjoyable when they are earned.
How much fun was it to see the Cardinals win Games 6 and 7 in the NLCS last year
when they appeared dead after Game 5? Not to mention the walk-off home run by
Edmonds in Game 6, the game saving catch by Jimmy in Game 7. None of those
moments would have been nearly as memorable had they come in Games 3 and 4 of a sweep. You have to walk the rocks to see the mountain view, as they say.

For those of you that turned off the game after the Berkman home run - you didn't go through the pain, so you can't enjoy the pleasure nearly as much.

Un-freaking-real.

Keep the Faith

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 17 Oct 2005 05:18:00 +0000

I'm starting to wonder if I have the mental make-up to enjoy the playoffs. I mean - the Game 2 loss kicked my butt. The Game 3 loss didn't hurt as badly, but only because I thought the Cardinals would win Game 4. Which, in turn, really got me in a great mood last night/this morning...

I think, in a nutshell, the Cardinals recent trends in the playoffs has conditioned me to think this; once a trend starts, it seems to continue. Call it La Russa's law of playoff dynamics. Look at what La Russa's playoff teams have done in history.

1983 (White Sox) - 1-3 in the ALCS
1988 (Athletics) - 4-0 in ALCS, 1-4 in WS
1989 (Athletics) - 4-0 in ALCS, 4-1 in WS
1990 (Athletics) - 4-0 in ALCS, 0-4 in WS
1992 (Athletics) - 2-4 in ALCS
1996 (Cardinals) - 3-0 in NLDS, 3-4 in NLCS (after winning 3 of the first 4)
2000 (Cardinals) - 3-0 in NLDS, 1-4 in NLCS
2001 (Cardinals) - 2-3 in NLDS
2002 (Cardinals) - 3-0 in NLDS, 1-4 in NLCS
2004 (Cardinals) - 3-1 in NLDS, 4-3 in NLCS, 0-4 in WS
2005 (Cardinals) - 3-0 in NLDS, 3-3 in WS

What do you see? Very few La Russa led teams do anything half way. They tend to either sweep or be swept. Which is especially strange when you consider that four of those teams (1988, 1990, 2004, and 2005) were 100 win teams. The teams that appear to be outliers to "Tony's Law" were the 1992 A's (2 wins in a series?), the 1996 Cardinals (who built a lead then blew it), the 2001 Cardinals (just missed winning that one), and the 2004 Cardinals (dug out of a 3-2 series deficit in the NLCS.)

It gets even stranger if you break it down a bit further. The 1996 Cardinals, as I mentioned above, actually had a 3 games to 1 series lead in the NLCS before dropping 3 straight. Which means, they went 6-1 to start the playoffs, 0-3 to finish. 2004? Similar. They started the playoffs off by going 5-1, only to go 2-7 over the last 9 games of October. In fact, if you break all of his playoff teams into "hot" and "cold" categories, it looks like this.

Hot, 37-3 (.925 winning percentage)
Cold, 10-39 (.256 winning percentage)

There you have it. Tony's teams have gotten off to hot starts, winning 93% of their games. Once this hot streak lasted through the World Series. Three times it never started. Generally, however, it ends during the LCS. Why? Anyone? I have trouble thinking that the manager can guide a team into the playoffs, as well as (usually) past the 1st round, only to forget how to win.

OK, so enough of that stuff. Back to 2005. Carpenter goes tonight, and if there's anyone on the staff that you'd want going in a must win, it's him. And you know if the Cardinals can send this thing back to Busch, anything can happen.

Which brings me back to my initial train of thought. I'm not sure if I can handle the playoffs. The truth of the matter is, the wins are more enjoyable when they are earned. How much fun was it to see the Cardinals win Games 6 and 7 in the NLCS last year when they appeared dead after Game 5? Not to mention the walk-off home run by Edmonds in Game 6, the game saving catch by Jimmy in Game 7. None of those moments would have been nearly as memorable had they come in Games 3 and 4 of a sweep. You have to walk the rocks to see the mountain view, as they say.

In 2004, the Red Sox were down 3-0 in the ALCS before going on to win the World Series. In 2003, the Marlins were down 3-1 in the NLCS before going on to win the World Series. Both of those teams had 2 must-win games on the road in their respective LCS', with the Marlins having to do so in Games 6 and 7. By comparison, the Cardinals having to win one in Houston pales.

Of course, there is the final thing of having to beat Pettitte, Oswalt, and Clemens in consecutive starts. That's not going to be easy - but it's been done as recently as 3 months ago by none other than the Cardinals.

July 15th - Pettitte Start, Cards win 4-3
July 16th - Oswalt Start, Cards win 4-2
July 17th - Clemens Start, Cards win 3-0

Yes, I'm grasping at straws here. In a nutshell? Win tonight. Worry about Game 6 if that happens.

What a Difference

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Fri, 14 Oct 2005 12:24:00 +0000

Funny how one's mood can be drastically different over a 12 hour (or less) period.

Yesterday, before the game, I was the fan of a 4-0 playoff team that hadn't trailed in a game. They were getting ready to face a starter they'd beaten up on this year, and countering with a guy that had given the Astros problems. I was wondering, at the time, if the Cardinals would win the NLCS in 5 games or 6!

Last night, by about the 8th inning, I was resolved to the Cardinals losing the game, potentially losing Sanders, and hoping they could find a way to win a game in Houston to send this series back to St. Louis. Talk about a roller coaster.

I don't have a bunch of stats or theories to pour over this morning. I'm more interested in venting a little frustration and getting my mind back into focus.

First, the Cardinals played very un-Cardinal like last night. It started in the first inning, when Grudz didn't cover 1st base on a Taveras bunt. That worked out just fine, but it was a sign of things to come.

As in, the 1st Astro run was scored on a passed ball, which was very un-Molina like. Things like that happen, but the game would have had a different feel in the 8th if it had been a tie game instead of a 2-1 Houston lead.

Julian Tavarez continued his crappy post-season by pitching horribly in the 8th inning. (I thought Marquis was the new 8th inning guy?) After the leadoff double to Berkman, Tavarez regrouped a little by getting Ensberg and Lane to ground out. (Side note - Tavarez has been lit up by left handers all season, as I mentioned in a previous post. Having him pitch to the switch hitting Berkman was a bad move off the bat.) Personally, I'm not sure why they didn't intentionally walk Burke at that point to set up force out at any base, but that call could go either way. Whatever the case, Burke singled him in, padding the lead. Then Adam Everett put the game out of reach, and potentially put Reggie Sanders on the shelf - even though that should have been a routine catch.

So...passed ball allows a run. The Cardinals pitch to Burke with a runner in scoring position and 2 outs and it burns them. And Sanders blows a simple play. The Astros took advantage of Cardinal mistakes, basically - just like the Cardinals have been doing to everyone else before last night.

And on one final negative note - let's hope that Sanders is in the lineup and healthy on Saturday for Game 3. It's bad enough that the Cardinals have been reduced to depending on (basically) 4 hitters to score runs for them in October with Walker struggling again. If they can only count on Eckstein, Edmonds, and Pujols for the rest of the playoffs, it could get ugly.

On the plus side - Mulder is obviously fine after taking a liner off the bicep. Edmonds made a great catch, even though he came up short with 2 men on twice last night. Marquis actually got the job done in relief. (Maybe Tony will move him ahead of Tavarez now.) And the Cardinals made Lidge work, even if it was only slightly.

I went into this series thinking the Cardinals should win it, and do so in 5 or 6 games. On top of that, I was only expecting a split of the first 2 games - which makes it even funnier that I'm upset over the loss, since I called it. (Of course, I also thought it would be Morris in Game 2, Mulder in Game 3.) So - like I said before this started - Game 3 is the swing game of the series. If the Cardinals find a way to win, they'll go up 2 games to 1, be looking at facing Backe in Game 4, and bring back Carpenter in Game 5. Driver's Seat City.

If the Astros win Game 3. Well, it won't be over, but it will set up a must win situation on Sunday. As in - while the Cardinals could beat Pettitte, Oswalt, and Clemens in 3 straight games to win the series, it wouldn't exactly be a given.

Nice Win

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 03:17:00 +0000

Fun fact for the night

Houston record vs. left handed pitching in 2005:

19 wins, 22 losses

Go Mulder!

NLCS Preview: Starting Lineup

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Tue, 11 Oct 2005 18:53:00 +0000

Cardinals vs. Astros (2005)

Here is what will likely be the regular lineup during this series, with Walker and Sanders likely flipped vs. Andy Pettitte.

Eckstein - .294/.368/.338, 707 OPS, 68 at-bats
Edmonds - .262/.324/.459, 783 OPS, 61 at-bats
Pujols - .302/.397/.524, 921 OPS, 63 at-bats
Walker - .340/.407/.553, 961 OPS, 47 at-bats
Sanders - .429/.529/1.179, 1708 OPS, 28 at-bats
Grudzielanek - .246/.246/.377, 623 OPS, 69 at-bats
Nunez - .200/.226/.200, 426 OPS, 30 at-bats
Molina - .245/.260/.367, 627 OPS, 49 at-bats

What you see there is a tail of two lineups. The first 5 have given the Astros fits this year, with the exception of Edmonds, who can't exactly be pitched around. You especially have to like the line sported by Sanders, who's entering this series with 1 or more RBI's in each of his last 9 games. (While I know that RBI's are a team dependant stat, that's still a nice trend.)

Once you get past Sanders, the bottom 4 (including the pitcher) have been automatic outs against Houston this year. (Other than Marquis and his .500/.538/.917 line over 12 at-bats, of course.) With that being said, if the top 5 hit anything close to the lines shown above, the bottom 4 will just be needed to provide solid defense and pitching. Everything else will be gravy.

Let me just say - a healthy Rolen in the lineup and on the field sure would be nice right about now.

No one on the Cardinal bench had any real success against Houston this year other than Einar Diaz (2 for 5 with a home run) and John Gall (1 for 1).

Astros vs. Cardinals (2005)

Biggio - .217/.269/.350, 619 OPS, 60 at-bats
Tavarez - .299/.319/.313, 632 OPS, 67 at-bats
Berkman - .263/.378/.605, 983 OPS, 38 at-bats
Ensberg - .339/.369/.629, 998 OPS, 62 at-bats
Lamb - .233/.273/.433, 706 OPS, 30 at-bats
Lane - .327/.375/.519, 894 OPS, 52 at-bats
Everett - .258/.288/.323, 610 OPS, 62 at-bats
Ausmus - .222/.300/.289, 589 OPS, 45 at-bats

Not quite as fearsome as the 2004 NLCS lineup with Beltran, Kent, and Bagwell, is it?

While the Cardinals offense vs. Houston is top heavy, the Astro offense vs. St. Louis is middle heavy. Based on these numbers, the Cardinals basically need to make sure that Berkman, Ensberg, and Lane don't beat them. Everyone else can be gotten to. Which, really, isn't a big surprise.

The best pinch hitting options for the Astros (based, once again, on head to head stats) are Raul Chavez (3 for 8) and Jeff Bagwell (4 for 16).

Here are how the lines match up if you look at the entirety of both teams head to head.

Astros - .250/.306/.378, 684 OPS
Cards - .265/.321/.428, 749 OPS

Yes, the Cardinals get on base more, but extra bases are the real difference seen.

The Cardinals clearly have an advantage in this series with the bats. The famous "they" always tout the mantra "good pitching beats good hitting." We'll see if it holds true.

NLCS Preview: Starting Pitching

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 10 Oct 2005 05:47:00 +0000

Here we are, back in the NLCS against the Astros. I certainly would have liked to have seen the Houston/Atlanta series go 5 games, but I guess an 18 inning Game 4 is the next best thing. Today I'm going to look at the starting pitchers for both teams and how they have fared against each other this year. Tomorrow, time willing, I'll do the same for the starting lineups.

Cardinals

First, the Cardinal starters.

vs. Houston (2005)

Carpenter - 4-0, 1.85 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 39 innings
Mulder - 1-1, 2.48 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29 innings
Marquis - 4-0, 3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 36.1 innings
Morris - 1-1, 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11 innings.

Note that Jeff Suppan didn't face the Astros this season, making his last start agianst them back in Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS. In my mind, that actually may make him the ideal man to start Game 2 or 3 of this series.

OK, more numbers.

vs. Houston (2005)

Mulder - .215/.254/.299, 553 OPS, 107 at-bats
Carpenter - .229/.259/.336, 594 OPS, 140 at-bats
Morris - .238/.289/.357, 646 OPS, 42 at-bats
Marquis - .277/.310/.409, 719 OPS, 137 at-bats

The starters that actually faced the Astros this year did very, very well. Obviously, Carpenter should be the #1 starter for the Cardinals during this series even if you ignore his numbers vs. the Astros. Seeing them spelled out above, of course, only strengthens the argument.

Mark Mulder was also solid against the Astros this season, holding their batters to lower numbers than even Carpenter managed. Unfortunately, his health is a bit of a concern after getting hit in his pitching arm in Game 2 of the NLDS. It sounds as if Mulder should be ready to go in either Game 3 or Game 4. Hopefully it's Game 3, setting him up for Game 7 if needed.

Who should start Game 2? As I mentioned above, Jeff Suppan may be a prime candidate. Not only was he solid down the stretch for the Cardinals, but the Astros haven't seen him this year. That may make him a little harder to solve, as opposed to someone like Marquis, who has had 137 at-bats against the Astros this year.

If the team has to pick between Marquis and Morris for the Game 2 start, I think the slight nod has to go to Morris. Matt allowed fewer base runners against the Astros this year - although, he did not pitch in Minute Made Park all season. And we know if Morris has a problem, it's the long ball. Game 2 might work nicely for Morris, allowing him to pitch Game 6 in his 2nd start, avoiding the small park all together.

Which, of course, brings us back to Game 4 being potentially between Marquis and Suppan. One has been successful against the Astros, one hasn't faced them. Which is more important?

One final thing. I thought I'd list the number of starts each pitcher has had in each park. I know that in an earlier post I mentioned that Houston has a strange park factor this year, but common sense dictates that it's still a home run hitter's park.

Carpenter, 5 starts, 2 in St. Louis
Marquis, 5 starts, 2 in St. Louis
Mulder, 4 starts, 2 in St. Louis
Morris, 2 starts, 2 in St. Louis

So, as you can see, the numbers that the first 3 listed have posted have come in both parks, with Morris being the only unknown in Houston.

Astros

vs. St. Louis (2005)

Pettitte - 0-1, 1.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 20 innings
Clemens - 1-1, 2.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 24 innings
Oswalt - 1-2, 5.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19 innings
Backe - 0-1, 10.32 ERA, 2.47 WHIP, 11.1 innings

For those of you wondering, Wandy Rodriguez got 2 starts against the Cardinals, with Ezequiel Astacio and Brandon Duckworth getting 1 each, thus helping to make the Cardinals head to head record look a little better than the match-up's we'll see this week.

vs. St. Louis (2005)

Pettitte - .188/.222/.319, 541 OPS, 69 at-bats
Clemens - .239/.304/.293, 597 OPS, 92 at-bats
Oswalt - .299/.313/.481, 793 OPS, 77 at-bats
Backe - .420/.483/.740, 1223 OPS, 50 at-bats

Pettitte really killed the Cardinals this year. Having him going in Game 1 is ideal for Houston, even though his dominance will be offset by Chris Carpenter. Clemens actually pitched rather well against the Cardinals, he just had more of his 2005 bad luck (Mark Mulder's 10 inning shutout as exhibit A.) An interesting note about Clemens - in 24 innings against the Cardinals, the power pitcher only struck out 13 batters, while walking 9. I think that's a great sign.

Oswalt was really hit hard by the Cardinals this year. Was it a fluke? To an extent, I'll say yes. In 2002 through 2004, Oswalt went 5-3 against the Cardinals with a 3.32 ERA. While that ERA is slightly higher than his overall numbers over that span (3.16), it's not exactly getting shelled. I'm going to hope that the Cardinals can continue to dominate Oswalt in the NLCS, but not expect it.

And the Cardinals absolutely owned Backe this year, which isn't a shock for a guy that had a 4.76 ERA, 1.46 WHIP on the entire year. Will he actually start in Game 4 of this series, or will Garner try to get Pettitte, Clemens, and Oswalt to start every game? With Garner, you never know.

Finally, the breakdown of starts.

Clemens, 4 starts, 2 in St. Louis
Pettitte, 3 starts, 1 in St. Louis
Oswalt, 3 starts, 2 in St. Louis
Backe, 2 starts, 2 in St. Louis

This chart seems to indicate that the Cardinals man-handling of Oswalt and Backe wasn't even aided by Minute Made Park. That can only be a good thing.

Wrap Up

Basically, all of the Cardinal starters were very solid against the Astros this year. On the other side of the coin, Pettitte and Clemens were tough, although Clemens' ERA was almost an entire run higher vs. the Cardinals as opposed to the rest of the league. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had their way with Oswalt and Backe. If you take some semi-educated guesses as to who the Cardinals and Astros will start in this series, it may look something like this:

Game 1 - Pettitte vs. Carpenter
Edge - Cardinals due to home field advantage, but the edge is slight.

Game 2 - Oswalt vs. Morris
Edge - Cardinals due to the Cardinals dominance of Oswalt this year.

Game 3 - Mulder vs. Clemens
Edge - Toss-up due to Mulder's health uncertainty and the Houston home crowd.

Game 4 - Marquis/Suppan vs. Backe
Edge - St. Louis due to Backe.

Game 5 - Pettite vs. Carpenter
Edge - Astros due to home field advantage.

Game 6 - Oswalt vs. Morris
Edge - See Game 2

Game 7 - Clemens vs. Mulder
Edge - Home field advantage is huge in Game 7.

My guess is that the Cardinals should split the first 2 games, and should be able to beat Backe in Houston. Game 3 could end up being the pivotal game of the entire series. If Mulder can pitch effectively and even get the win over Houston - putting the series at either 2-1 or 3-0 St. Louis - then the Cardinals are likely to win this thing in 5 or 6 games.

Of course, the bullpen has to pitch too...

Comments

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Fri, 07 Oct 2005 15:20:00 +0000

I've finally had it with the spam comments on posts, so I've changed it so that only registered users can post them. I honestly don't know what effect that will have on anyone that wants to post a comment, or even if that will stop the spam. We can only hope.

Oh, and Go Cardinals!

Playoff Bullpen

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 03 Oct 2005 20:45:00 +0000

With the very, very unfortunate news that Al Reyes is done not only for the playoffs, but for most of next year, I thought we'd better take a look at the bullpen for October.

The Cardinals can only carry 11 pitchers in the playoffs this year, which should be more than enough. Of course, Tony appears to be ready to carry all 5 of his starters, which limits the rest of the staff to 6 slots. Al Reyes was a shoe-in for the roster, of course, considering that he was either the best or 2nd best reliever the team had this year, depending on where you ranked Isringhausen. But with Reyes gone, the options are as follows.

Right

Jason Isringhausen
Julian Tavarez
Cal Eldred
Brad Thompson
Anthony Reyes
Adam Wainwright

Left

Ray King
Randy Flores
Tyler Johnson

Out of those 9 guys, 6 will be on the NLDS roster. Personally, I suspect that Izzy, Tavarez, Eldred, and Thompson are given from the right side. Likewise, King and Flores will likely fill out the roster. I really don't think that Wainwright and Johnson have a realistic shot to make the team. What about Anthony Reyes, though?

OPS Allowed (overall)

Al Reyes - 545
An Reyes - 546
Izzy - 595
Thompson - 647
Flores - 700
Eldred - 708
Tavarez - 765
King - 818

Off the bat, we miss Al Reyes. Anthony Reyes - in very limited work - was actually just as good as his (near) namesake.

OPS Allowed vs. Left

An Reyes - 426
Izzy - 495
Al Reyes - 547
Florez - 583
Thompson - 629
Eldred - 675
King - 680
Tavarez - 815

People are already saying that Al Reyes will be missed due to his ability to retire both right handed and left handed batters. Take a look at the splits of the other Reyes, though.

OPS Allowed vs. Right

Al Reyes - 544
An Reyes - 618
Thompson - 650
Izzy - 678
Eldred - 736
Tavarez - 745
Flores - 812
King - 981

Once again, Anthony Reyes is among the staff leaders. In fact, he leads this list when you factor in guys that can actually pitch tomorrow.

General Assessment

In general, I think an argument could easily be made that Anthony Reyes should be on the playoff roster. Maybe he doesn't get used in late situations due to the unknown factor, but recent history would suggest that that doesn't have to be an issue. (Francisco Rodriguez, Anaheim, 2002) I'm not 100% convinced that Anthony would completely replace Al, but I think the Cardinals could do worse. Such as, counting on Julian Tavarez and his 765 OPS allowed to pitch the 8th inning.

Randy Flores should be used as a LOOGY. (Left handed One Out GuY).

Ray King should be used as an extreme LOOGY.

Julian Tavarez, in all honestly, should be used as a ROOGY. (I don't think that's a real acronym, but I'm standing by my assessment!)

With those 3 guys limited to facing either lefties or righties, and Izzy limited to the 9th inning...well, that leaves 2 guys in the bullpen, plus a converted starter (Marquis, Morris, or Suppan.) Who is the 8th inning guy? Rookie Brad Thompson? Veteran Cal Eldred?

Seriously. Tony. For the love of Pete. Consider Anthony Reyes.

Izzy vs. Lidge

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 29 Sep 2005 16:26:00 +0000

I've heard it many, many times. From the timid "this guy makes me nervous" to the extreme "I hate this guy." Let's face it - Jason Isringhausen is viewed by many, if not most Cardinal fans, as a tightrope walker who more often than not blows the game. Meanwhile, Brad Lidge is viewed as the un-hittable closer. When he comes in, it's lights out. Is the difference between these two really that different this year?

Traditional Stats

Lidge
4-3, 40 saves, 3 blown saves, 2.13 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Izzy
1-2, 37 saves, 4 blown saves, 2.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Not a lot to get upset about, is there? Izzy allows 0.06 more baserunners per inning, and 0.08 more runs every 9 innings he pitches. Sure, he's blown 1 more save, but he's lost 1 less game. His save percentage (90%) is just lagging that of Lidge (93%).

More Traditional Stats

As in, "let's look at some more" as opposed to "these are more traditional."

Lidge
101 K's, 23 BB's, 67.2 innings, 5 HR

Izzy
48K's, 25 BB's, 57 IP, 4 HR

This, obviously, is the big difference. Lidge strikes out an insane amount of batters, while Izzy walks too many. I can understand the awe that is created by a guy that strikeouts out more than a batter an inning. I can also understand the frustration created by a guy that walks a batter every other inning. Of course, that's why statistics can be an important tool. Other than frustration, does it matter how many baserunners Izzy allows, as long as he's not giving up as many hits? (WHIP). Or as long as he's getting the job done? (Losses, Blown Saves.) Realistically, no. Emotionally? That's a little different.

One other note - Lidge has allowed 0.66 HR/9 IP, Izzy 0.63 HR/9 IP. Dead even.

Batting Stats Allowed

Lidge
657 OPS Allowed vs. Left
563 OPS Allowed vs. Right
609 OPS Allowed Overall

Izzy
498 OPS Allowed vs. Left
667 OPS Allowed vs. Right
591 OPS Allowed Overall

That's right, folks. Jason Isringhausen has a lower OPS allowed than Brad Lidge this season. "But wait!" you say. "Lidge plays his home games in a home run park." I don't know about you, but I hadn't paid any attention to park factors this year. Have you seen them? According to ESPN, Busch stadium has been the 4th most offense friendly park in the majors this season. Minute Maid Park? Last!? 43.8% fewer runs have been scored in Houston than in an average park this year. Yes, that is partly impacted by Houston's pitching and lack of hitting, but remember that the numbers for both home and road teams are taken into account in park factors. (I wonder how many Cy Young voters take park effects into consideration, since Carpenter is the only contender playing in a park that hasn't been pitcher friendly?)

That's freaky. But whatever the case, Izzy has a lower OPS allowed, and has done so while playing in (for this year at least) a park more friendly to hitters than Lidge has.

Less Popular Stats

Lidge
11 Win Shares, 6 WSAB, 22.6 VORP

Izzy
9 Win Shares, 5 WSAB, 21.0 VORP

Lidge does come out a bit on top when it comes to these metrics. Basically, Lidge has been worth about 2/3 of a win more than Izzy this year, and about 1.6 more runs over a replacement pitcher. Lidge's VORP ranks 95th among pitchers in the majors, while Izzy ranks 107th.

(For another oddity, both rank 2nd on their team in VORP - Russ Springer leads the Astros, while Al Reyes leads the Cards.)

Summary

So, what's my point? Basically, I just wanted to point out that Izzy isn't quite disaster waiting to happen that many, many Cardinal fans make him out to be. If I needed a strikeout to win a game and had the luxury of choosing between Lidge and Izzy? I'd go with Lidge. Duh. But you know what? Isringhausen has been getting the job done this year. He may not be going about it in as sexy of a manner as Lidge, but the truth of the matter is - the closer is not even close to the top of the list of my post-season concerns this year.

RRR Update

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Fri, 23 Sep 2005 18:11:00 +0000

I just added links to two new websites that I've come across. (Cool Standings and Fan Graphs.) You may not like them as much as I did, but I think both are great.

I'll be getting some new articles out over the next few weeks. Namely, the concluding articles of the Walt Jocketty trade series (which, I know, has taken me months instead of weeks) in addition to playoff previews. For those of you that stop by from time to time - thanks for the patience!

2nd Base in 2006

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 15 Sep 2005 17:10:00 +0000

I know - long time no post. Time flies when you're having fun.

Anyway, I was looking at some random stats last night and stumbled across something kind of interesting. Hector Luna, in limited play, has the exact same OPS as Mark Grudzielanek as of today. To me, this brought up an interesting thought - is Luna actually ready to be a cheaper alternative to Grudz as soon as next year?

Offense

First, let's take a look at the offensive numbers. As I already mentioned, Grudzielanek and Luna have the same OPS in the majors this season.

Grudz - .292/.331/.412, 743 OPS (476 at-bats)
Luna - .284/.331/.413, 743 OPS (109 at-bats)

A bit of rounding error gives them the same OPS despite Luna having a higher SLG by 1 point. Kind of interesting, no? If you adjust Luna's counting statistics to assume the same number of at-bats, you see something like this.

Grudz - 29 doubles, 2 triples, 8 home runs
Luna - 30 doubles, 8 triples, 4 home runs

Basically, Luna's speed gives him triples to offset the slight edge in home runs seen by Grudzielanek. A few more numbers:

Grudz - 22 walks, 72 strikeouts, 8 steals, 5 caught stealing
Luna - 26 walks, 83 strikeouts, 34 steals, 4 caught stealing

Here's where Luna's speed really shines. Those 34 projected stolen bases in the same amount of playing time really add to the potential value provided by Luna. Especially if his success rate (89%) could be maintained. And finally, some team dependant numbers.

Grudz - 59 runs scored, 53 RBI
Luna - 104 runs scored, 56 RBI

Obviously, this stat is tainted by the fact that Luna is frequently used as a pinch runner late in games who ends up being driven in without increasing his at-bat totals. But at the same time, the fact that he's putting himself into scoring position (stealing bases) does help his cause here.

In a nutshell - Luna has performed very well with the bat in the majors this year. In fact, he's been just as good as Grudzielanek. We shouldn't forget, however, that he wasn't nearly as good in AAA this year.

.224/.294/.332, 223 at-bats.

Has being around the "big club" inspired him to do better? Has someone figured out a problem that has since been corrected? Obviously, I don't know. I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility, however, that he's simply starting to come into his own at this point in the year.

Defense

So what? you say. Grudz is a gold glove candidate this year. That was certainly my first instinct. Then I looked at the defensive numbers.

Grudz - .989 Fielding %, 5.48 Range Factor, .870 Zone Rating
Luna - .976 Fielding %, 6.06 Range Factor, .895 Zone Rating

I wouldn't have guessed it, but Luna is actually getting to more balls in play than Grudzielanek. Granted, he's only played 120.1 innings compared to 1055.1 for Grudz. Nonetheless, he's gotten the job done during the time allotted to him. "But Grudz is valuable for the double plays he turns" you say. Take a look at this.

Double Plays per 9 innings

Grudz - 0.86
Luna - 1.05

That's right - Luna actually has turned double plays at a higher rate than Grudzielanek! I certainly didn't expect to see that.

Conclusions

Mark Grudzielanek has been a great acquisition for the Cardinals this year without a doubt. Both defensively and offensively, Grudz has given the Cardinals an upgrade over Tony Womack for a measly $1 million bucks, helping the team to get back to the 100 win plateau in back to back seasons.

At the same time - he's been somewhat injury prone over the past few years, and turned 35 in June. His role on this Cardinal team - especially his defense - has probably driven up his market value so that someone somewhere will likely be willing to pay him $3 to $4 million a year for the next 2 to 3 years.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a player on their team in Luna who has put up similar numbers in limited playing time this year. He doesn't turn 26 until February, and the Cardinals have the rights to him for the next 4 years - including what will likely be a very cheap salary in 2006 (less than $500,000.)

Do the Cardinals let Grudzielanek become the 2006 versions of Womack and Matheny? I don't think it's out of the question. By keeping Luna, and thus keeping an extra $2 to $3 million off of the books, the Cardinals would be in a better position to go after the corner outfielder they need next year, either by trade or by free agent signing.

Just something to keep in mind over the next couple of weeks, as we wait for the real season to begin.

Pujols, Edmonds, and....Nunez

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:33:00 +0000

Word is that Scott Rolen's chances of playing again this year are becoming more and more slim every day. Not that this is exactly shocking, mind you - I've felt all along as if the Cardinals probably can't count on more than two out of four of their current injured players (Rolen, Walker, Sanders, and Molina) contributing this post-season. But it still hurts to hear Jocketty himself start to incinuate as much.

Which, of course, leaves the Cardinals with the options of Abraham Nunez, John Mabry, and Scott Seabol manning the hot corner the rest of the year. I thought I'd spend some time today focusing on the guy that has been (and probably will continue to) getting the most time at 3rd base, in Abraham Nunez.

When the Cardinals invited Nunez to camp last off-season, I wasn't excited nor worried about his inclusion. I personally saw him as the 2005 version of Hector Luna (without a promising future) - a player who wouldn't hit much, but could give players days off in the infield. Nunez had the added benefit of solid defense, plus switch hitting capability. All in all, kind of a ho hum, 25th man on the bench.

Prior to 2005, Nunez had spent 8 years in the major leagues. Coming up with the Pirates at the age of 21, Nunez basically spent his entire career as a backup middle infielder, never playing more than 118 games in a season, or getting more than 311 at-bats. His career hitting line before this year was .238/.306/.316 with an OPS+ of 62. As in, he has been 38% worse than an average major league hitter over his career. He had career season highs of 4 home runs, a .262 batting average, a .344 OBP, and a .375 SLG. Note that his .344 OBP came over just 52 at-bats in 1998, and that his 2nd best season was a .311 mark. Similarly, his .375 SLG season was over just 40 at-bats in 1997, but that he posted a similar SLG of .357 in 2003.

Defensively, Nunez spent most of his time at shortstop (229 games, 810 innings) and 2nd base (226 games, 1395.1 innings). His MLB experience at 3rd base consisted of 8 games and 23.1 innings prior to this year. The defense he displayed at short and 2nd were basically league average in relation to fielding percentage and range factor, while his limited duty at 3rd base wasn't pretty. Of course, we all knew that he would likely play 3rd base this year under La Russa, which was fine with me. In fact, I suspect that a healthy Rolen would have resulted in Nunez seeing time in the outfield as well this year. But I digress.

Enter 2005. Due to the unfortunate health of Scott Rolen, Nunez has played a lot of 3rd base this year. So far? He's answered the bill and then some.

Offensively, Nunez has already set career highs in runs scored (45), hits (84), home runs (5), RBI (36), and walks (29), despite only having played in 98 games and getting 278 at-bats. What's more, if the season finished today, he would eclipse his previous season highs in batting average (.304), OBP (.370), SLG (.409), and OPS (.779). Granted, he's been cold lately (547 OPS in August), but his increased walk rates and power are still something to be encouraged about.

Defensively, Nunez has shined at 3rd. I'm not going to bother trying to compare Nunez to every 3rd baseman in baseball, but I will compare him to a pretty ok fielder in St. Louis - Scott Rolen. Looking at defensive stats from just this year, you'll see that Nunez actually has a slightly higher range factor than Rolen. Basically, Nunez (this year) has been better at making more putouts than Scott, while having fewer assists. Intuitively, that makes since with the cannon Rolen has. To show you what I mean, here are the number of putouts and assists per 9 innings at 3rd base for both players this season.

Putouts/9

Rolen - .41
Nunez - .80

Assists/9

Rolen - 2.78
Nunez - 2.59

To top that off, Nunez has a slightly better fielding percentage this year as well. In other words, he's not hurting the team with his glove.

Summary

As you can tell by this post, I didn't really have anything in particular to say about Nunez starting over Rolen, other than to write down some thoughts I was having. Defensively, Rolen would be preferred over Nunez from a gut feel. In 2005, however, it's not really cut and dry that he would be head and shoulders above Nunez.

Offensively, of course, a healthy Scott Rolen would be much, much preferred over Abraham Nunez, no matter how well he's playing. However, we've never really seen a healthy Rolen this year, so once again - that's not a cut and dry argument.

Nunez has obviously been playing better than ever this year. To be honest, I keep expecting it to end - and his August splits may be an indication that the party is in fact starting to end. (Or, he could just be tired of playing from the heat.) Whatever the case, there are signs (walk rate, for example) that Nunez is doing things a little differently this year. He doesn't have to be a superstar in this lineup to help the team win. If he can maintain a .350 OBP in the playoffs - thus not hurting the team as an automatic out - and provide solid defense, then the team can still win it all.

Cardinal Trades - 2002

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 15 Aug 2005 05:11:00 +0000

This was an interesting year in Cardinals history. The somewhat expected death of Jack Buck came first, quickly followed by the very unexpected death of Darryl Kile. The death of Kile brought on a trade that likely wouldn't have happened other wise, in the form of Chuck Finley. On the bright side, 2002 also saw the addition of current cornerstone (when healthy) Scott Rolen.

The Cardinals send Luis Garcia and Covelli "Coco" Crisp to the Cleveland Indians for Chuck Finley.

As I mentioned above, this trade likely wouldn't have even taken place without the unfortunate death of Darryl Kile. With that being said, you may remember that 2002 actually featured several rotation members going through health problems. Woody Williams missed a lot of time with an injury. Andy Benes more or less retired early in the season, only to come back very strong after the death of Kile. And Bud Smith started his repid decline during the 2002 season, after having a very promising 2001. However, the Cardinals had been treading water in the division behind the solid starting pitching of Matt Morris, Darryl Kile, and Jason Simontacchi (aka, the Brit Reames of 2002.)

Anyway, the death of Kile, combined with the injuries to Williams and the uncertainty surrounding Benes, led to the need for another starting pitcher. Adding a lefty to the rotation was a bonus.

Sent away in this deal was Luis Garcia, the key player in the trade at the time. Garcia has never played in the major leagues.

Coco Crisp was actually a player to be named later in this deal. Obviously, the Indians did a nice job in naming him later, because he's made this trade one that is coming back to hurt the Cardinals a little in present day. After being acquired in Cleveland in 2002, the Indians promoted him from AA all the way to the majors, where he hit .260/.314/.386 over 127 at-bats. Interestingly enough, he provided the Indians with 3 Win Shares in 2002, whereas Finley provided the Cardinals with 4. Overall, Crisp (prior to this season) has hit .280/.324/.401 for the Indians over the past 3 seasons, spending most of his time in center field. In 2005, he's currently hitting .296/.345/.446, 791 OPS.

Chuck Finley was 39 years old at the time of his acquisition, and he ended up finishing his career as a Cardinal. During his half season in St. Louis, Finley went 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA, 103 ERA+. He eventually ended up getting the only win for the Cardinals in the NLCS despite giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings pitched against the Giants.

Win Share Totals

Chuck Finley - 4 (1 year in St. Louis)

Luis Garcia - 0
Coco Crisp - 24 (3 years and counting)

The Cardinals send Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith to the Philadelphia Phillies for Scott Rolen and Doug Nickle.

The rumors running up to the trade deadline always mentioned the Cardinals as a possibility in this trade, but it took a while for me to believe it was going to happen. Over the last week, the rumors had the Cardinals giving up both Bud Smith and Jimmy Journell, which had me thinking the price was too high (shows what I know.) In the end, the Cardinals ended up giving up 3 players, and actually getting 2 in return.

Polanco was included in the trade in order to give the Phillies a 3rd baseman to replace Rolen. Polanco had always been a solid hitter, but not for a corner infielder. What's more, his glove was always great, no matter where they seemed to play him in St. Louis. I, for one, was one of the people interested in moving Renteria for needed players, while keeping Polanco at shortstop. Whatever the case, Polanco brought Rolen into town, and it's hard to argue with that. Over three seasons with the Phillies, Polanco hit .294/.340/.441, 781 OPS, spending most of his time at 2nd base over the last 2 years.

Also included in the trade was Mike Timlin, who was getting ready to become a free agent. Timlin was actually one of the better arms in the Cardinal bullpen in 2002 (2.51 ERA, 156 ERA+), making me scratch my head as to why he was included in the deal at the time. After all - the Phillies weren't going to the playoffs, and Timlin wasn't going to be back with them in 2003. I, for one, would have liked to have seem Timlin stay in town, but that's splitting hairs at this point. Timlin finished off the season in Philly, posting a 3.79 ERA over 35.2 innings. He has since spent his time in Boston, picking up a World Series ring. Since leaving St. Louis, Timlin is 14-11 with 3 saves and a 3.82 ERA.

Bud Smith has not pitched in the majors since this trade. As far as I can tell, he actually pitched in 3 minor league games this year, but hasn't been in a game since mid-May. I'd love to see him get it back together some day, but at this point it's a long shot. At least he can tell his kids that he pitched a no-hitter in the majors.

Scott Rolen probably doesn't need a very detailed introduction here. He was a former rookie of the year who already had 3 gold gloves when he was picked up in this trade. What's more, he had hit 25 or more home runs in each of the previous 4 seasons. He had a rap as a bit of an injury prone player, but it was believed that playing on grass rather than turf would help him out. So far, I believe that has actually helped, despite his injury problems last year and this. Especially this year, when his problems were caused by a collision. Since coming to St. Louis, Rolen has hit .296/.381/.561, 942 OPS, including 76 home runs and 272 RBI (not counting 2005.) He's pretty good.

Doug Nickle was placed on waivers right after this trade and claimed by the Padres. He hasn't pitched in the major leagues since.

Win Share Totals

Scott Rolen - 75 (3 years in St. Louis)
Doug Nickle - 0

Placido Polanco - 42 (3 years)
Mike Timlin - 17 (3 years)
Bud Smith - 0

The Cardinals send Jared Blasdell and Jason Karnuth to the Cubs for Jeff Fassero

Supposedly, Dave Duncan saw Jeff Fassero jogging near the arch on a hot day in August during a Cubs series. His dedication to staying healthy despite playing for a horrible Cubs team impressed Duncan, who pressed for the Cardinals to pick him up.

Jared Blasdell was the main player the Cubs wanted for Fassero. Considering he never played in the majors, I guess that was a bad idea.

Jason Karnuth was a player to be named later in this trade. He pitched 5 innings for the Cardinals in 2001 with a 1.80 ERA, but hasn't pitched in the majors since.

Fassero actually wasn't too bad for the Cardinals in 2002, pitching 18 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 130 ERA+. He also ended up pitching 3.1 shutout innings in the playoffs, which included the winning decision in 2 of the 3 Cardinal wins against the Diamondbacks in the NLDS. I'll do my best to remember that part of his career in St. Louis, rather than his adventures for the team in 2003.

Jeff Fassero - 2 (2 years in St. Louis)

Jared Blasdell - 0
Jason Karnuth - 0

The Cardinals send Chris Morris and Mike Matthews to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jamey Wright.

I may be wrong, but I remember this trade as an attempt to revive the career of a starter who had shown some promise earlier in his career. To be honest, they gave up too much for Wright, even though it really didn't hurt them in 2002 or beyond.

Chris Morris was a young player who many thought would end up being a great leadoff hitter for the Cardinals. Morris tore up A ball in 2001, posting a .401 OBP and stealing 111 bases - an organization record, if I recall correctly. For whatever reason, however, the Cardinals traded him away for Wright. Even more perplexing, however, is the fact that Morris is still in the minors - but has never played above A ball.

Mike Matthews was also sent away in this trade, but never really put together a solid season in the majors after leaving town. Overall, he went 8-5 with a 5.02 ERA over 3 seasons after this trade.

Jamey Wright pitched in 4 games for the Cardinals, including 3 starts. Overall, he went 2-0 with a 4.80 ERA, 81 ERA+. For whatever reason, he was grated free agency after the season despite having been traded for. Which brought up an interesting 2003 for Mr. Wright:

January 28, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Seattle Mariners.
March 18, 2003: Released by the Seattle Mariners.
March 26, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Milwaukee Brewers.
April 28, 2003: Released by the Milwaukee Brewers.
May 7, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Texas Rangers.
June 15, 2003: Released by the Texas Rangers.
June 20, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.
October 30, 2003: Granted Free Agency.
December 29, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs.

Win Share Totals

Jamey Wright - 1 (1 year in St. Louis)

Chris Morris - 0
Mike Matthews - 3 (3 years)

2002 Totals

Win Shares acquired by St. Louis - 82

Win Shares given up by St. Louis - 86

Net Win Shares gained - negative 4, or 1 loss.

Basically, 2002 can be boiled down to two things. Scott Rolen improved the team for years to come over the players sent away. Chuck Finley improved the team slightly in 2002 - but the loss of Coco Crisp actually hurt the team for years to come. Assuming, of course, that the Cardinals would have played him. Considering that he's about an 800 OPS player, it's hard to imagine them using him in a corner slot. Worst case scenario, the Cardinals probably should have kept him around in order to use him in a better trade. But that's easy to say right in hind sight. In 2002, it probably looked like the loss of Morris was going to be a bigger problem.

Here's the updated WS matrix.

1996, -5, -2
1997, 9, 3
1998, -5, -2
1999, -4, -1
2000, 32, 11
2001, 34, 11
2002, -22, -7
2003, -15, -5
2004, -2, -1

It's interesting to note that the Cardinals were 95-67 in 2002 - yet had 7 fewer wins than they would have by keeping around players that had been traded away. However, when you look at the specifics you can see why this is misleading.

For one thing, the death of Darryl Kile makes the numbers look worse than reality. Kile only compiled 4 win shares in 2002 over 14 starts. Considering that he had 17 and 18 win shares over the previous 2 seasons, he most likely would have finished the year with 14 or more, bringing up the Cardinals totals. Not helping the balance sheet is the fact that one of the players sent away for the Kile package - Jose Jimenez - posted 13 win shares in 2002.

The other trade from the past that caught up to the Cardinals in 2002 was the Garret Stephenson/Ron Gant deal. In 2002, Stephenson was horrible for the Cardinals as he fought injury problems, picking up 0 win shares over 45 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Ron Gant (12 Win Shares) and Cliff Politte (7 Win Shares) were having solid seasons in San Diego and Toronto, respectively.

Taken together, Darryl Kile and Garret Stephenson posted 28 fewer win shares than Jose Jimenez, Ron Gant, and Cliff Politte, more than making up for the difference listed above. With that being said, it's impossible to argue that the Darryl Kile trade of 2000 was a failure because of his death. In addition to that, the Cardinals dealing away Ron Gant was probably needed from a clubhouse standpoint, even if he had been able to help out the team in 2002. After all - with an outfield of J.D. Drew, Jim Edmonds, and Albert Pujols, where was he going to play? (If he could have helped the Cardinals avoid the Tino Martinez signing, I guess it could have been worth it.) All in all, the Cardinals should have kept Politte around in 1999. That, in a nutshell, was the factor that would have been nice to have erased looking back.

Cardinal Trades - 2001

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 11 Aug 2005 17:11:00 +0000

2001 was a fairly low activity year in regard to trades. The team was coming off of a trip to the NLCS the previous year and felt as if they were somewhat loaded and ready to go. There were a couple of key moves, however.

The Cardinals send Fernando Tatis and Brit Reames to the Montreal Expos for Dustin Hermanson and Steve Kline.

This trade brings back some memories. I personally remember thinking the Cardinals were stupid for giving up on Tatis so quickly. He was, after all, hurt in 2000, thus his lower production. Shows what I know - it ends up that his work ethic really wasn't cut out to every really come back from that injury. Either that, or something more sinister in his make-up scared off the Cardinals. Whatever the case, they made the right call. Ditto that on Brit Reames, who was probably the 2nd best pitcher on the staff during the playoffs the previous year.

Tatis ended up playing for the Expos (and in the majors) for 3 seasons after this trade. In those seasons, he only totaled 208 games, 701 at-bats, and 19 home runs. His batting line was .225/.295/.357. Obviously, something changed with Tatis after he left the Redbirds, since he had hit .281/.381/.530 over the previous two years. In light of recent scandals in baseball....well, you never know.

Brit Reames had a similar, albeit more expected, fall back to earth after his stellar year in St. Louis. After going 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA over 40.2 innings for the Cardinals in 2000, he was shipped north, much to the displeasure of some Cardinal fans. Of course, when the dust cleared Reames, like Tatis, only spent 3 more years in baseball. In those 3 years, he went 5-12 with a 5.53 ERA over 164.1 innings.

Steve Kline gave the Cardinals a solid, durable left handed pitcher for the bullpen. He was especially awesome in both 2001 and 2004, while being serviceable the other two years. Overall, Kline went 12-11 with 21 saves over 4 seasons, posting a 2.69 ERA over 247.1 innings.

Dustin Hermanson was a bit of a disappointment in St. Louis. He came over to be the #3 starter behind Kile and Morris, but in reality finished the season behind both Bud Smith and Woody Williams on the depth chart (more on Williams shortly.) He was still solid on the year, however, going 14-13 with a 4.45 ERA over 192.1 innings. He was traded away after the season.

Win Share Totals

Steve Kline - 30 (4 years in St. Louis)
Dustin Hermanson - 8 (1 year in St. Louis)

Fernando Tatis - 8 (3 years)
Brit Reames - 3 (3 years)

The Cardinals send Ray Lankford to the San Diego Padres for Woody Williams

This was another strange trade. I always felt like Ray Lankford was used as a scapegoat, even though he was still putting up decent numbers (.235/.345/.496 with St. Louis in 2001). I guess the batting average was too scary for those afraid of OBP. Whatever the case, Lankford and Williams both cleared waivers, thus were swapped in a basic salary/change of scenery swap.

Lankford actually flourished after the trade, hitting .288/.386/.480 over 125 at-bats. However, his production really nose dived in 2002, as he was only able to hit .224/.326/.356 over 205 at-bats. Once again, Walt traded before the value was completely gone. Overall, Lankford only played those 2 seasons for San Diego, hitting .248/.344/.403 for the Padres before getting an exit tour with the Cardinals last year. (He took 2003 off.)

Williams was perhaps the most surprising return in a trade in my lifetime. He kicked things off in 2001 by going 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA, leading the Cardinals back to the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row. Personally? I thought it was a fluke, but was happy to see it happen. Of course, as you all know, he proved me wrong over the next few years. Overall, Woody spent parts of 4 seasons in St. Louis, going 45-22 with a 3.53 ERA. Not bad for a waiver pick-up.

Win Share Totals

Woody Williams - 39 (4 years in St. Louis)

Ray Lankford - 15 (2 years)

2001 Totals

Win Shares acquired by St. Louis - 77

Win Shares given up by St. Louis - 23

Net Win Shares gained - 54, or roughly 18 wins.

Interestingly, there were only two trades made all year - but they almost improved the team (18 wins) as much as the multitude of trades pulled of the previous year (27 wins). What's more, Walt gave the team a solid #2 starter in Woody, as well as a solid left handed reliever in Kline for the next 4 seasons - key parts of the 2001, 2002, and 2004 playoff teams.

Here is how the win share matrix shakes out, including the 2001 trades.

1996, -5, -2
1997, 9, 3
1998, -5, -2
1999, -4, -1
2000, 32, 11
2001, 34, 11
2002, -24, -8
2003, -4, -1
2004, -3, -1

Just like 2000, the Cardinals ended up being 11 games better in 2001 than they would have been by simply building with their farm. What's more, you can see that future talent given up to that point wasn't having much of an impact, at least in 2003 and 2004.

Is J-Rod for Real?

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 08 Aug 2005 22:28:00 +0000

Editor's note: Note one - if I had an editor, I wouldn't be needing to add this note. Note two - someone pointed out to me that I had used XBH:AB as a metric instead of XBH:H. That made zero sense, but totally gave me a false impression on J-Rod. I have re-written several sections of this article, with most of it based around XBH:H and the summary.

I was asked this question the other day. My gut instinct, of course, is to say "no." Any time a player doesn't crack the big leagues until the age of 27 he usually isn't going to sustain a .333 average and a 961 OPS over any extended period of time. But maybe, just maybe....

Minor Leagues (pre-2005)

Rodriguez has always been a fairly solid hitter in the minor leagues. Through last season he spent 8 years in the minors, hitting .270/.353/.461, good for a 814 OPS. Minor league numbers are fairly hard to analyze for us common folk, since information on park effects, level of competition, and other factors are a little harder to dig up than their major league counter parts. For that reason, I have a few metrics that I normally look at when digging through minor league stats. They are by no means the definitive answer to how good a player is, but we'll still walk through them in regard to J-Rod.

BB per AB

In general, I like to see a player drawing walks at a rate of about 10% per at-bat. (Yes, I know a BB doesn't count as an at-bat - it's just a rule of thumb.) During Rodriguez' minor league career, he has exceeded the 10% mark in walk rate every season but one, when he had a 7% rate in 2001. In his 8 seasons before this year, his career walk rate was actually 12%. In other words - he's not afraid to get on base.

BB to K Ratio

This ratio, sometimes referred to as "batter's eye", is another useful tool in seeing how patient a hitter is. I use a 0.5 mark as a baseline when it comes to this ratio. In other words, as long as a hitter is striking out 2 or fewer times for every 1 time he walks, I trust his strike zone judgment. Rodriguez comes in looking good in this measure as well, as he had a ratio of 0.5 or better in 6 out of 8 minor league seasons, with a career mark of 0.5 leading up to this season.

K to AB Ratio

This may seem like a redundant measure, but it's not if you think about it. Sure, a player may only strike out 2 or fewer times for each BB drawn, but what he he walks a lot? Then he's being fooled a lot as well. That's why I also check out the K:AB numbers. I don't like to see a minor leaguer striking out more than 1 time every 5 trips to the plate. If he's being fooled more than that in the minors, life is going to be hard on him in the majors. Rodriguez is borderline in this category. His career mark up to this season had been 0.24, just worse than my preferred 0.20 level.

Extra Base Hits per Hits

The final mark I look at his XBH:H. I like this measure for a couple of reasons. One, park factors can give or take away home runs from players, skewing their slugging percentages. Two, younger power hitters tend to hit a lot of doubles, that eventually turn in to home runs as they gain power as they mature. In general, I like to see hitters getting extra base hits 30% of the time in the minors, regardless as to if they're hitting doubles, triples, or home runs.

When I first wrote this article, I had inadvertently calculated XBH per AB instead of per hit. Thankfully, someone caught my stupid mistake, because believe me - it made a world of difference. Rodriguez has actually shown power in the minors from day one. As a 19 year old rookie in the Gulf Coast League in 1997, extra base hits accounted for 32% of all of his hits over 157 at-bats. In fact, over his 8 seasons leading up to 2005, 30% was the lowest XBH:H ratio Rodriguez put together in a season (1999).

On the high side, J-Rod really started exhibiting some serious power in the 2001 season, having extra base hits account for 48% of all hits (393 at-bats.) He then followed that up with XBH 47% of the time in both 2002 (354 at-bats) and 2004 (378 at-bats). 2004 is especially impressive, as he did it in AAA. The fact that he only had 16 home runs is a bit misleading in regard to his power potential when you look at his total extra base hits, which included 10 triples.

Overall, he ended up having extra base hits account for 39% of all of his hits in the minor leagues leading up to this year. Folks - that is the sign of a power hitter in the making.

Minor Leagues (2005)

Rodriguez began this season in the Cleveland Indians organization, which included a very impressive spring training (.320/.370/.760, 1130 OPS, 25 at-bats.) He was then sent to AAA Buffalo, where he hit .247/.323/.447 over 170 at-bats, giving him an OPS of 770 - very similar to his career mark of 814. Looking at his rates from the above section:

BB:AB - 0.09
BB:K - 0.6
K:AB - 0.24
XBH:H - 0.5

Almost every one of those numbers is right in line with his career minor league marks, other than the power stroke. His XBH:H ratio actually looks more like 3 of his previous 4 seasons, with 2003 being a potential fluke.

Then, he was traded to Memphis, where he proceeded to thump the league over the head. Over 120 at-bats, Rodriguez hit .342/.419/.808, giving him a 1227 OPS. He also hit 5 doubles, and 17 home runs. (His minor league stats for this year are here.) Take a look at his ratios at Memphis:

BB:AB - 0.11
BB:K - 0.6
K:AB - 0.23
XBH:AB - 0.54

What you see is - essentially - his walks and strikeouts stayed about the same. His extra base hits rate did in fact increase, but only from 50% to 54% - it just happened that his doubles had turned into home runs. The fact that Rodriguez was hitting an inordinate amount of home runs but only a few doubles suggests something fluky - be it weather, the new home park, or just plain old luck, I can't tell you. Whatever the case, his previous career high in home runs was 22 over 393 at-bats - but he had always shown power potential in the minors in the form of doubles and triples. His short season in Memphis was likely a fluke in the total number of home runs, but not really out of line with his career mark in extra base hits!

Major Leagues

Now let's take a look at the ratios he's putting up in the bigs.

BB:AB - 0.10 (0.12)
BB:K - 0.35 (.50)
K:AB - 0.27 (.24)
XBH:AB - 0.39 (.40)

The set of numbers in the parentheses are his career minor league numbers, including 2005. As you can see, his walk rate is slightly lower, his K rate is slightly higher, and he's hitting for a little less power than he did in the minor leagues - all expected, as he's facing tougher competition. With that being said, he doesn't appear to be performing at a level that suggests he's completely out of his head right now.

Summary

John Rodriguez appears to me to be the type of player that may be able to contribute for more than just a few weeks. He isn't afraid to take a walk from time to time, giving him solid OBP numbers over his career (.353 lifetime minor league OBP.) What's more, he has always displayed power in the minors, usually in the form of doubles and triples up until his crazy visit to Memphis earlier this year.

Is Rodriguez going to be a .300 hitter in the majors? Probably not, at least on a consistent basis. Is he going to be a 30 home run guy? The first time I wrote this article, I said no. Now, I'm not so sure. The fact that he never reached that mark in the minor leagues cannot be used as an argument against him, since he never had more than 408 at-bats in a season. With the power he's displayed starting in 2001, I think he in fact could surpass 30 home runs if given 500 or more at-bats.

All in all, now that I've re-looked at the numbers, I think the Cardinals may have stumbled onto something here. Rodriguez isn't likely to become the next Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, or Scott Rolen. However, he in fact could be an 850 to 900 OPS guy in the corner outfield who could be signed relatively cheaply. And considering his young age (27), he could help out the Cardinals for the next few years.

All I need to know about Hal McRae

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 08 Aug 2005 13:29:00 +0000

From the Post-Dispatch:

Cardinals hitting coach Hal McRae approached leadoff hitter David Eckstein
with a rhetorical question Sunday during batting practice: How many walks had he
had in the past 20 games?

Eckstein guessed four.

The answer was one.

"That," McRae said, "is the point."

At McRae's advice, Eckstein waited out pitches and didn't swing the bat
once in his first two plate appearances Sunday. For the day, he reached base
four times, doubling with his first swing and winning the game with its final
swing.

I'll let those words speak for themselves, since most of you reading this blog are already fans of plate discipline.

With a little luck, you'll see some posts from me this week. I'm hoping to do one on John Rodriguez, and at least one more in my (everlasting) series of trade evaluations.

Cubs Series

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 25 Jul 2005 15:21:00 +0000

I have to say, while I would have loved to have seen the Cardinals take 2 out of 3 from the Cubs, the end result of that series doesn't have me upset this morning. Any time you have a series that features a lineup with your starting catcher, 3rd baseman, and left fielder on the DL, along with your regular 1st baseman and right fielder on the bench? You're not likely to win. As is, the Cardinals had a chance to win (or lose) all 3 games. In fact, Pujols had a chance to win each of the last 2, just coming up short.

In the meantime, the Cardinal's health (or lack thereof) is starting to make me just a little nervous. Breaking it down:

Yadier Molina - broken hand (kind of important for a guy who snags 90+ MPH fastballs.) The last I heard, it will be at least another 2 weeks.

Reggie Sanders - broken leg (and bye bye 30/30 season.) Sanders, in my mind, is the guy most likely to be able to come back and play at a high level in September.

Scott Rolen - shoulder problems. His defense was still fine, it's just the fact that he can't hit. He has me very nervous right now.

Larry Walker - neck problems. They're talking about another cortizone shot this week. Let's face it - the dude is old. If he can actually play come October, at this point it will be a bonus to me.

Rumors are bouncing around that the Cardinals may be interested in dealing Jason Marquis for Melvin Mora, then calling up Adam Wainwright to fill out the rotation. Mora is having a slight down year (.294/.352/.493), but would be a great upgrade over the current bench. What's more, the guy has played all 3 outfield positions, as well as 3rd, 2nd, and short. Even if everyone gets healthy, he could play plenty. And, of course, the Cardinals only need 4 starters in the playoffs anyway. Between Suppan and Marquis, one was going to either move to the bullpen or be left off of the roster anyway.

Sidebar - yes, it's been sparce to see me posting here. I'm working on it, people. (My real job has to take a higher priority, even when I don't want it to....)

Chris Carpenter

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Sun, 26 Jun 2005 14:40:00 +0000

Just a quick note this morning. ESPN has been tracking game scores this season, which is a Bill James methodology of rating how good a start is. To learn more about it, check out this link, which also includes the best game scores of the season.

And while you're there, of course, note that Chris Carpenter now has the best 2 games pitched this season in the NL - last night's (2nd), and the 1 hitter against the Blue Jays (1st). In fact, he now has 2 of the best 3 starts in the majors on the year.

Cardinal Trades - 2000

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Wed, 22 Jun 2005 02:42:00 +0000

After a few weeks and a couple of thousand miles of travel for work, I'm finally back on the job of reviewing Walt Jocketty's Cardinal trades. Due to the distress my time off from the blog has created for the 5 or so of you that check in from time to time, I am voluntarily taking a 50% pay cut...

Here we go!

The Cardinals send Alberto Castillo, Lance Painter, and Matt DeWitt to the Toronto Blue Jays for Pat Hentgen and Paul Spoljaric.

This is the trade that kicked off the 2000 rebuilding project. Alberto Castillo had been a decent player for the Cardinals in 1999, but was used as trade bait to upgrade the rotation. And looking at his numbers since being traded away, it's easy to see why. Over 457 at-bats, Castillo hit .212/.280/.284 over the past 5 years. He was solid for the Royals last year, however.

Lance Painter was actually pretty solid for the Blue Jays in 2000, going 2-0 with a 4.72 ERA over 66.2 innings. Overall, he only pitched 2 years after leaving the Cards (not counting 2003, when he was back in town.) During that time he was 3-1 with a 5.27 ERA.

Matt DeWitt was in the majors for parts of the next 3 years after this trade, but never had a season with more than 19 innings pitched. He finished his career with a 1-3 record, 4.95 ERA.

Coming back to the Cardinals was Pat Hentgen. Hentgen provided the Cards with an innings eater type pitcher. He didn't lead the team in ERA, ERA+, innings pitched, or wins - but he was a solid contributor in 2000, going 15-12 with a 4.72 ERA over 194.1 innings.

Paul Spoljaric was waived by the Cardinals during Spring training. He ended up pitching 9.2 innings for the Royals that season, then retired.

Win Share Totals

Pat Hentgen - 10 (1 year in St. Louis)

Alberto Castillo - 10 (5 years)
Lance Painter - 5 (2 years)
Matt DeWitt - 2 (3 years)

The Cardinals send Jose Jimenez, Manny Aybar, Rich Croushore, and Bret Butler to the Colorado Rockies for Darryl Kile, Dave Veres, and Luther Hackman.

At the time, I actually remember not being overly impressed by this trade. I wasn't convinced that Kile was really going to get it back moving back to "normal" altitude, while the Cardinals were sending away a young pitcher with a no-hitter under his belt in Jimenez. Was I ever wrong.

Of the players sent away, Jimenez did in fact end up having the best career post-trade. In the past 5 years, Jimenez went 16-30 with 110 saves and a 4.59 ERA. While the ERA isn't stellar, he did spend 4 of those years in Colorado. He was especially impressive in 2000 through 2002, posting ERA+ seasons of 186, 127, and 138. And believe it or not, he's had more Win Shares over the past 5 years (40) than Darryl Kile had as a Cardinal (39.) (And yes, I realize that isn't exactly a fair comparison.)

The next best player sent away was Manny Aybar - and should tell you a lot about this trade. In his post-Cardinal career, Aybar ended up going 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA over 119.1 innings for 5 different teams.

Brent Butler was almost as good as Aybar. He played parts of three seasons for the Rockies, hitting .245/.285/.380 over 553 at-bats, hitting a grand total of 11 home runs despite half of his games coming in Coors Field.

Rich Croushore, the screwball pitcher, was actually pretty solid for the Cardinals in 1999. Unfortunately for him and the Rockies, is was a career year for him. He pitched 16 innings in 2000 between the Rockies and the Red Sox, posting a 7.88 ERA. He hasn't pitched in the majors since.

The keystone coming back to the Cardinals, of course, was DK. Kile was completely awesome in 1997, going 19-7 with a 2.57 ERA. He tried to cash in by going to Colorado, but as we know - that's not the place for a curve ball pitcher to try to make a living. Coming to St. Louis, Kile became the anchor of the staff in 2000, going 20-9 with a 3.91 ERA. Over his 2 and a half year stint with the Redbirds, Kile was 41-24 with a 3.54 ERA. It's hard to imagine that it's been 3 years ago tomorrow (June 22nd) since he passed away at the age of 33. Rest in Peace.

Dave Veres wasn't chopped liver as he came over in the trade, having recorded 31 saves in 1999 with a less than spectacular 112 ERA+ for the Rox. While many Cardinal fans never really felt comfortable with him in the game, Veres nonetheless spent 3 years in town as the closer, picking up 131 saves with a 3.33 ERA. He was especially tough in the 2000 season, getting 29 saves with a 2.85 ERA, 162 ERA+.

Luther Hackman was really a throw in player in this trade, but he ended up having as good of a career with the Cardinals as 75% of the players given up in this trade. Only with the Cardinals for 3 years, Hackman went 6-6 with a 4.30 ERA and eventually was dealt for Bret Tomko.

Win Share Totals

Darryl Kile - 39 (3 years in St. Louis)
Dave Veres - 27 (3 years in St. Louis)
Luther Hackman - 5 (3 years in St. Louis)

Jose Jimenez - 40 (5 years)
Manny Aybar - 7 (4 years)
Bret Butler - 7 (3 years)
Rich Croushore - 0 (1 year)

The Cardinals send Juan Acevedo, Eli Alfonzo, and Matt Parker to the Milwaukee Brewers for Fernando Vina.

Acevedo had been a serviceable swingman for the Cardinals in 1998 and 1999, getting both starts and closing opportunities during both seasons. But Walt had many irons in the fire pitching wise (such as the newly acquired Dave Veres) and thus had room to deal him away. After leaving the Cardinals Acevedo's days as a starting pitcher were officially over. During the next 3 seasons, he went 7-22 with 34 saves and a 3.97 ERA for 6 different teams.

Eli Alfonzo and Matt Parker were both players to be named later in this trade. Looks like the Cardinals did a poor job in drafting them, and the Brewers did an even poorer job in "naming them later." Neither ever made it to the majors.

Fernando Vina had been coveted by Walt Jocketty for a while, as rumors of him coming to the Cardinals had been floating around since at least the 1999 season. And that's easy enough to understand - he played hard, was solid defensively, and was perceived to be a leadoff hitter. Actually, other than his first pitch swinging, he was a pretty good leadoff guy in 2000 and 2001. 2002 and beyond left quite a bit to be desired, but overall he was a solid player for the Redbirds. Vina hit .285/.327/.384 over his 4 years in "The Lou," picking up a pair of gold gloves.

Win Share Totals

Fernando Vina - 61 (4 years in St. Louis)

Juan Acevedo - 23 (4 years)

The Cardinals send Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy to the Anaheim Angels for Jim Edmonds.

This trade may be looked back upon in 20 years as the Brock/Broglio deal of this era. At the time, it didn't seem quite like a no-brainer. Bottenfield had just had an 18 win season and Kennedy looked like the real deal.

Bottenfield, as I just said, went 18-7 in 1999 with a 3.97 ERA, 115 ERA+. Obviously, the Angels GM at the time must have gone to the Joe Morgan school of "wins are the only pitching stat that matters." 18 wins looks great, but doing so with a 3.97 ERA in the NL? It wasn't likely to happen again....and it didn't. Bottenfield's ERA ballooned up like his waistline in the AL as he had a 5.71 before being traded to the Phillies at the deadline. Over 2000 and 2001, Bottenfield went 10-15 with a 5.63 ERA. Last I heard he had a Country/Christian album coming out earlier this year.

Some were afraid that Kennedy was going to haunt the Cardinals down the road, and he has been a solid player (with a World Series ring to boot.) But overall, Kennedy has been nothing more than a nice player, hitting .278/.322/.406 over the last 5 years. In other words - he's no Jim Edmonds. (He's not even David Ecksteine....)

Jim Edmonds. What's not to like? He was acquired to play 2nd banana to Mark McGwire, but Big Mac went down and Edmonds ended up leading the team in OPS+, HR, RBI, R, and a case of other statistics as the Cardinals made it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1997. In his 5 years with St. Louis (prior to this year) he's hit .298/.409/.593 with 181 home runs and 5 gold gloves in center field. I'm very biased, but I don't think you can find a better centerfielder in baseball during that time span. If he can get to 400 home runs and add a World Series ring to his portfolio, I think he has a legitimate shot at the Hall of Fame.

Win Share Totals

Jim Edmonds - 146 (5 years in St. Louis)

Kent Bottenfield - 7 (2 years)
Adam Kennedy - 63 (5 years)

The Cardinals send Jose Leon to the Baltimore Orioles for Will Clark.

With Big Mac down and out, the Cardinals got help in the form of Will Clark. Someone forgot to tell him that it was 2000, not 1990. But first, Jose Leon.

Leon did make it to the majors, playing with the O's from 2002 through 2004. However, he only got 209 at-bats during that time, hitting .225/.262/.321. Not exactly great numbers out of a corner infielder.

Clark, on the other hand, played out of his mind. Over 171 at-bats, Will the Thrill hit .319/.418/.546, including an amazing 12 home runs and 42 RBI over those 51 games. While I wanted Clark to come back for the 2001 season, I know there is no way he could have finished his career with a better flourish than what he did.

Win Share Totals

Will Clark - 10! (1 year in St. Louis)

Jose Leon - 0 (3 years)

The Cardinals send Chris Richard and Mike Nussbeck to the Orioles for Mike Timlin.

The Cardinal bullpen was pretty shallow leading up to the trade deadline, thus this trade (and the next one.) Other than Dave Veres, Matt Morris, and Mike James, there wasn't much that could be counted on out there until the acquisition of Timlin.

Richard actually ended up with more win shares than Timlin in 2000 as he hit .276/.335/.563 with 13 home runs in August and September for the O's. But Richard never really was able to re-capture that level of performance again during his career. He hasn't played since the 2003 season, having career numbers of .258/.324/.452.

Mike Nussbeck never made it to the majors.

Mike Timlin went 3-1 with 1 save and a 3.34 ERA in 2000, helping stabilize the Cardinal bullpen. He, like Timlin, was never fully trusted by the fans, but more often than not he got the job done. Spending parts of 3 seasons in St. Louis, he went 9-8 with a 3.53 ERA over 155.1 innings and helped land an important part of the MV3's in a later year...

Win Share Totals

Mike Timlin - 13 (3 years in St. Louis)

Chris Richard - 19 (4 years)

The Cardinals send Jack Wilson to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jason Christiansen.

The Cardinals were desperate for a left handed pitcher in 2000. Yes, they had Rick Ankiel in the rotation, but the bullpen? Jesse Orosco? 2.1 innings pitched, out for the season. Scott Radinsky? One - ONE - pitch thrown during a game, out for the season. Mike Matthews, Justin Brunette, Jose Rodriguez - all were given a shot, none got the job done. So Walt made a move for Christiansen, giving him his only bad trade of the 2000 season.

First, Jack Wilson. Wilson is a slick fielding shortstop who the Cardinals felt was expendable with Edgar Renteria in town. Fair enough. Between 2001 and 2004, Wilson hit .265/.303/.370 with a 75 OPS+, making the highlight reel with his glove on a regular basis. He was especially good last year, giving people ammunition to complain about the Cardinals giving up on him. With that being said, I thought last year was likely a fluke. So far, it appears to have been (.238/.275/.367 through today.)

Christiansen had a great season. In 1998. Did I mention we were talking about 2000? So far in the year, Jason had a 4.97 ERA, 92 ERA+ over 38 innings. That's not great, but maybe he was a LOOGY waiting to happen? Maybe, maybe not. Whatever the case, he pitched 10 innings for the Cardinals with a 5.40 ERA. He did, however, pitch 2.1 perfect innings in the playoffs, which was the whole reason he was brought to town. He finished his Cardinal career having just pitched 29.1 innings for the Redbirds, posting a 4.91 ERA with a 2-1 record and 3 saves.

Win Share Totals

Jason Christiansen - 3 (2 years in St Louis)

Jack Wilson - 51 (4 years)

2000 Totals

Win Shares acquired by St. Louis - 314

Win Shares given up by St. Louis - 234

Net Win Shares gained - 80, or roughly 27 wins.

This was a banner year for Walt, and really the beginning of both his and the Cardinals great run. He revitalized the pitching staff by picking up 2 rotation members. Furthermore, he added a new closer, and a solid setup man at the trade deadline. Not to mention the Will Clark pickup. I realize that Walt likely never expected what he got out of Clark, but luck counts too.

The only blemish of the year, as mentioned, was the Wilson/Christiansen trade. Do I blame Jocketty for trading Wilson? No. Do I blame them for wanting a left handed reliever? Again, no. It is likely, however, that a better candidate could have been picked up to fit the bill that could have helped out the Cardinals more both in 2000 and beyond.

Not only did the trades in 2000 set up the Cardinals for their playoff run, it also placed the 2001 team into a position to be a playoff contender. Here is the updated WS matrix. Once again, this is a breakdown of the difference in Win Shares between the players the Cardinals acquired and the players the Cardinals sent away. Remember - this is a worst case scenario, as players sent away count for the remainder of their MLB careers, whereas players recieved only count during their time with the Cardinals.

1996, -5, -2
1997, 9, 3
1998, -5, -2
1999, -4, -1
2000, 40, 13
2001, 16, 5
2002, -29, -10
2003, -21, -7
2004, -17, -6

Under Walt Jocketty, the Cardinals were 13 games better in 2000 than they would have been by simply building from their farm system. What's more, the 2001 team was already 5 games better before any moves were made.

Five years down, 4 years to go. I promise, it won't take me three weeks to get to 2001.

I'm still alive

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 16 Jun 2005 12:40:00 +0000

I just wanted to check in and let you all know that I am still around, and do plan on finishing up my trade evaluations. The real world, once again, has been a little more pressing as of late. Look for me to get back into the swing of things by Monday night of next week.

Cardinals Trades - 1999

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Thu, 26 May 2005 17:18:00 +0000

Let's get right to it.

The Cardinals send Braden Looper, Armando Almanza, and Pablo Ozuna to the Florida Marlins for Edgar Renteria.

In an effort to win the World Series before Y2K ended the world as we know it, Walt went after a young shortstop with a championship in his portfolio.

Braden Looper was easily the best player given up in this trade. Having pitched 3.1 innings for the Cardinals in 1998 with a 5.40 ERA, young Looper has gone on to become a closer, currently with the Mets. Since leaving St. Louis Looper is 18-18 with 75 saves, a 3.45 ERA, and a World Series ring.

Almanza hasn't been as successful as Looper, but is still making a living playing a kids game. He managed to play 5 years with the Marlins and spent last year in Atlanta. Over his career, the reliever is 14-13 with 2 saves and a 4.87 ERA over 210.2 innings.

Ozuna was supposed to develop into the stud of this bunch. Yet more proof that prospects are never a sure thing. Ozuna made it to the majors in 2000 at the age of 25 and hit .333/.333/.375 over 24 at-bats. He's never quite managed to stick at the major league level, however. Before this season he's never had more than 47 at-bats in a given year. His overall hitting line is .261/.297/.333 with a OPS+ of 63 and 0 MLB home runs.

Edgar Renteria ended up being a nice, solid player for the Cardinals. Over his 6 years in St. Louis he hit .290/.350/.420 and picked up 2 gold gloves, 3 silver sluggers. He had an especially great 2003, hitting .330/.394/.480 with 47 doubles, 34 stolen bases, and 100 RBI. That's a lot of production out of a defensive shortstop. Unfortunately for Cardinal fans, his 2003 season and not the rest of his hitting career was looked at this off-season, putting him out of the Cardinals price range. Well, I say unfortunately - the Cardinals appear to be doing just fine with Eckstein, Mulder, and Grudzielanek for about the same amount of 2005 dollars.

Win Share Totals

Edgar Renteria - 109 Win Shares (6 years in St. Louis)

Braden Looper - 50 Win Shares (6 years)
Armando Almanza - 10 Win Shares (6 years)
Pablo Ozuna - 2 Win Shares (4 years)

The Cardinals send Ron Gant, Jeff Brantley, and Cliff Politte to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Garrett Stephenson and Ricky Bottalico

This trade is a classic example of teams dumping players that they really wish they didn't have onto each other, with both sides hoping they can get the benefit of a change of scenery bump in production. In the end, clubhouse benefits aside, the Phillies ended up getting the short term benefit of this trade.

Ron Gant and Tony La Russa supposedly didn't get along. Claims of racism surfaced, but have never made any sense to me personally. (Would a true racist actually dislike blacks, but have no problem with Latin players? I guess it's possible...) Gant had a respectable 1998, playing in 138 games and hitting .260/.364/.430. His 16 win shares that year were more than any Cardinal outfielder - it was a year, after all, in which Willie McGee got 271 at-bats while hitting .251/.293/.277. (How he got playing time with a racist manager is beyond me.) The Phillies kept Gant around until the trade deadline the following year, when they sent him on to the Angels. Overall, Gant played 5 years after his stint in St. Louis, hitting .254/.345/.457 with 37 home runs over 859 at-bats.

Jeff Brantely really was horrible after leaving St. Louis - even worse than he was with the Cards. Over three years, the current announcer went 3-10 with a 5.61 ERA over 85 innings pitched. Somehow, some way the Phillies allowed him to record 23 saves in 2000 despite a 5.86 ERA, 81 ERA+.

Cliff Politte was a player that, for some reason, the Cardinals threw in in this deal. Personally, I don't see why it was needed. He was born and raised in St. Louis and had shown some limited promise in a few of his 8 starts during the 1998 season. But gone he was. The Phillies eventually converted him to a reliever during the 2000 season, which was a good move for Mr. Politte. Overall, Politte is 11-17 with 14 saves and a 4.26 ERA over his post-St. Louis career.

Coming to St. Louis in this deal was Curt Schilling's buddy Garrett Stephenson. Stephenson was always a little bit better in his mind than on the field. Overall, the Cardinals got a good season out of him in 2000, and an O.K. one in 2003. Over four years in St. Louis, Garrett was 42-47 with a 4.46 ERA over 781.2 innings.

Then there was Ricky Bottalico. I'm not sure why the Cardinals thought that he would be an upgrade over Brantely considering his 6.44 ERA in 1998. But nonetheless, he was the new closer for 1999. The good news was he recorded 20 saves. The bad news was he had a 3-7 record. When your closer has a 4.91 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, things are not good - although, to be fair, he was actually better than Brantley in 1999. Thankfully, though, he was a free agent after the season.

Win Share Totals

Garrett Stephenson - 21 Win Shares (4 years in St. Louis)
Ricky Bottalico - 4 Win Shares (1 year in St. Louis)

Ron Gant - 39 Win Shares (5 years)
Jeff Brantely - 5 Win Shares (3 years)
Cliff Politte - 21 Win Shares (6 years)

The Cardinals send Shawon Dunston to the New York Mets for Craig Paquette

Two of my recent least favorite Cardinals involved in the same trade. I didn't really completely dislike Dunston, so much that I hated seeing him actually taking playing time away from J.D. Drew in the outfield. The defensive downgrade alone should have been enough, but Drew was a much better hitter - even against lefties, which was usually when Dunston got the nod (This was especially a problem in 2000, when Dunston came back like a fungus). Whatever the case, Dunston wasn't bad for the Cardinals in 1999, hitting .307/.327/.467 over 150 at-bats.

Craig Paquette was very similar to Dunston in that he despised drawing walks. In six major league seasons prior to 1999, Paquette's single season high in OBP was .296. Unfortunately (so to speak), he won over a lot of fans at the end of the 1999 season by hitting 10 home runs in just 48 games. Now - I can't completely discount Paquette. There is value in a guy that was able to play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, right field, and left field. And a power bat from the right side of the plate is always nice off of the bench. I simply never liked a player of his talent actually getting 340 or more at-bats in a season, as he did in both 2000 and 2001. Overall, Paquette spent parts of three seasons with the birds on the bat, hitting .267/.307/.461.

Sidebar - A friend of mine went to Colorado during the opening series of the 2001 season. Sitting on the lower level, he was able to maneuver into position to get an autograph from Paquette and speak to him briefly before the game. My friend asked Paquette how much impact young Mr. Pujols would have on the team that year. Paquette, obviously disgusted that Pujols might take away some of his playing time with McGwire on the DL, basically said "the kid isn't good enough to stick on the roster long enough to have an impact." My friend was so ticked that he ended up throwing away the baseball. That comment, combined with Paquette's general suckiness, helped me to thoroughly enjoy it when Vina went on the DL in 2003 - a week after Paquette retired from baseball while toiling in AAA Memphis.

Win Share Totals

Craig Paquette - 25 Win Shares (3 Years in St. Louis)

Shawon Dunston - 4 Win Shares (1 Year)

1999 Totals

Win Shares acquired by St. Louis - 159

Win Shares given up by St. Louis - 131

Net Win Shares gained - 28, or roughly 9 wins

Basically, Walt had what I would consider to be a great trade (Renteria), a solid trade (Paquette), and a bad trade (Stephenson/Bottalico.)

Renteria, as mentioned above, had a great run with the Cardinals. He was especially valuable to the team in 2002 and 2003 when he recorded 26 and 25 win shares, respectively. In fact, Renteria had more win shares in each and every season with the Cardinals than Looper, Almanza, and Ozuna combined.

Paquette drove me crazy, but he was in fact a solid bench player. The fact that Paquette had more WS in 1999 for the Cardinals (5) than Dunston had with the Mets (4) would have made it a decent trade to start with. When you further consider that he contributed another 20 WS with the Redbirds over the next 2 years - with Dunston as a teammate in 2000 as he re-signed - and it is an obvious no-brainer.

The third trade, as already stated, was a case of house-cleaning in both organizations. In reality, Gant ended up being the best player involved in the deal, but only had 2 solid seasons over the rest of his career. Considering that Stephenson had 1 himself, the bulk of the trade deficit in this deal was in the 1999 season. If the Cardinals could have kept Politte for themselves in this deal and worked them into their bullpen, Jocketty wouldn't have looked quite as bad on this one.

Here's the updated WS matrix, updated through the 1999 trades.

1996, -5, -2
1997, 9, 3
1998, -5, -2
1999, -3, -1
2000, -4, -1
2001, -26, -9
2002, -29, -9
2003, -15, -5
2004, -18, -6

Basically, you have the Cardinals not gaining or losing much in Walt's trades through the 1999 season. As far as future talent, the Cardinals had so far sent away roughly 9 wins in both 2001 and 2002. Could that deficit be made up in future trades? Stay tuned for the 2000 season, when Jocketty really kicked it into gear.

Cardinals Trades - 1998

noreply@blogger.com (Robb) — Mon, 23 May 2005 05:24:00 +0000

After almost two weeks without working on this series, I'm finally back at it. That pesky real world just gets in the way sometimes. Hopefully I can rip out 2 or 3 of these this week, as well as deal with the 2005 Redbirds.

The trades we'll talk about here are those that had an impact on the 1998 team. For that reason, the Jeff Brantley/Dmitri Young trade will be discussed here, even though it actually took place in late 1997.

The Cardinals send Dmitri Young to the Reds for Jeff Brantley

Young, a switch hitter, was a nice, solid player that had progressed through the Cardinal system. Since he was primarily a 1st baseman, and since a certain Red headed power hitter had been acquired in 1997, Mr. Young became expendable. Prior to the trade, Young had hit .257/.337/.354 over 362 major league at-bats with St. Louis over the previous 2 seasons. With the Reds, Young turned into a solid player, hitting .304/.357/.488 over the next 4 years, playing 1st, 3rd, left field, and right field. Overall, Dmitri has hit .298/.350/.494 in his 7 seasons since the trade. Considering he'll turn 32 in October, he should have several years left in the tank.

Jeff Brantly was supposed to be the closer that the Cardinals needed in 1998 to replace the departed Dennis Eckersley. Brantley was coming off of a season in which he was only able to pitch 11.2 innings, but had recorded 44 saves with a 2.41 ERA just 2 years previous. The good news was that Brantley was healthy in 1998. The bad news was that he would never sniff his 1996 levels again in his career. He ended up only playing 1 year for the Redbirds, going 0-5 with 14 saves over 50.2 innings. His ERA+ of 94 was actually the best of the last 4 years of his career.

Win Share Totals

Jeff Brantley - 5 Win Shares (1 year in St. Louis)

Dmitri Young - 86 Win Shares (7 years)

Cardinals send Todd Stottlemyre and Royce Clayton to the Texas Rangers for Darren Oliver, Fernando Tatis, and Mark Little

Even though it's only been 7 years, it seems odd to be talking about a time when the Cardinals were selling and the Rangers were buying in July. But that's exactly what happened in 1998, when it was obvious by the deadline that the Cardinals weren't going to be playing come October.

Todd Stottlemyre was solid for the Rangers in 1998, going 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA over 10 starts. Thanks to help from Stottlemyre and Clayton, the Rangers finished 1st in the West, 3 games up on the Angels - then proceeded to get swept by the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Stottlemyre got one start in the post season where he went 8 innings, gave up 2 earned runs, struck out 8 - and took the loss as David Wells pitched 8 shutout innings. After the season Todd signed with the Diamondbacks, where he was never healthy again. Over his post-Cardinal career he went 20-15 with a 4.68 ERA, never pitching more than 101.1 innings in an individual season.

The Rangers got a bit more of a return with Clayton as he stayed in town through the 2000 season. His best overall season came with the Rangers in 1999, when he hit .288/.346/.445 and had a 98 OPS+. Overall, Clayton never really put it all together. He will likely be remembered as a guy with a slightly above average glove and a below average bat with some speed in his prime. Overall, his post-Cardinals numbers were .261/.316/.391, and he's still playing in 2005.

Darren Oliver was the key target of this trade. The 27 year old left handed starter was 41-27 with a 4.68 ERA over the previous 6 years for the Rangers. After joining the Cardinals, he went 13-13 with a 4.26 ERA in St. Louis through the 1999 season. After 1999, he was granted free agency.

Fernando Tatis ended up being the diamond in the rough among this group -although, it was a short lived success. Tatis, a third baseman, had hit .264/.297/.378 in limited time with the Rangers between 1997 and 1998. Only 23 years old at the time of the trade, the Cardinals plugged him into the every day lineup and were not disappointed. Through the 2000 season, Tatis would hit .282/.378/.525 with 60 home runs over 1063 at-bats. His 1999 season was especially a memorable one as he hit .298/.404/.553 with 31 doubles, 34 home runs, and 107 RBI. Rob Neyer declared that he would be the best 3rd baseman in the current decade before the 2000 season (I searched, but can't find the article.) And, of course, there is the 2 grand slams in the same inning thing. All in all, he was a great player in his brief time with the team. (More one him in a future article.)

Mark Little actually played for the Cardinals in 1998. 12 at-bats, 1 hit, 2 walks, and a stolen base. He was later granted free agency.

Win Share Totals

Darren Oliver - 5 Win Shares (2 years in St. Louis)
Fernando Tatis - 39 Win Shares (3 years in St. Louis)
Mark Little - 0 Wins Shares (1 year in St. Louis)

Todd Stottlemyer - 16 Win Shares (5 years)
Royce Clayton - 63 Win Shares (7 years)

1998 Totals

Win Shares acquired by St. Louis - 62

Win Shares given up by St. Louis - 165

Net Win Shares gained by St. Louis - negative 103, or roughly 34 wins

Running Totals (1996 - 1998)

Win Shares acquired by St. Louis - 254

Win Shares given up by St. Louis - 342

Net Win Shares gained by St. Louis - negative 88, or roughly 29 wins

The trades made for the 1998 season really appear to be bad. Part of that is actual, part of it is misleading.

Dmitri Young for Jeff Brantley has been claimed by Walt Jocketty to have been his worst trade, but it's not as bad as some make it out to be. Yes, Brantley was a bust. Yes, Young has been a solid player. And yes, the Cardinals should have gotten more out of him. But Young's best season was 2003, when he posted 19 win shares. Those win shares in 2003 would have made him the 5th best player on the Cardinal team, behind Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and Renteria. Of course, if the Cardinals had kept him, the Tino Martinez experiment may have never been needed.

The other aspect of the 1998 trades that looks bad today is trading Royce Clayton. Of course, we all know that having Edgar over Clayton was eventually what took place, as will be covered in the 1999 trade edition. The simple fact that Clayton has remained a regular over the last 7 years skews the numbers away from the Cardinals. I am, as you can see, continuing to count ALL win shares accumulated post-trade against the Cardinals. I will keep doing that until I have covered the 2004 season. At that point, I will likely go back and adjust the numbers to reflect the contract status of players traded away. (The Cardinals, for example, may not have chosen to re-sign Young after is arbitration years were up.) But for now I want to see how the numbers shake out once Renteria, Kile, Edmonds, and Rolen enter the picture.

Finally, here is the new version of win shares accumulated by year with the 1998 trades included. Once again, listed are the year, net win shares picked up, and net wins picked up.

1996, -5, -2
1997, 9, 3
1998, -5, -2
1999, -2, -1
2000, -14, -5
2001, -34, -11
2002, -21, -7
2003, -29, -10
2004, -22, -7

Right now, it's not an encouraging trend. With that being said, 1999 and 2000 are the years and Jocketty really started to acquire talent. Stay tuned.