Monday, October 03, 2005

Playoff Bullpen

With the very, very unfortunate news that Al Reyes is done not only for the playoffs, but for most of next year, I thought we'd better take a look at the bullpen for October.

The Cardinals can only carry 11 pitchers in the playoffs this year, which should be more than enough. Of course, Tony appears to be ready to carry all 5 of his starters, which limits the rest of the staff to 6 slots. Al Reyes was a shoe-in for the roster, of course, considering that he was either the best or 2nd best reliever the team had this year, depending on where you ranked Isringhausen. But with Reyes gone, the options are as follows.

Right

Jason Isringhausen
Julian Tavarez
Cal Eldred
Brad Thompson
Anthony Reyes
Adam Wainwright

Left

Ray King
Randy Flores
Tyler Johnson

Out of those 9 guys, 6 will be on the NLDS roster. Personally, I suspect that Izzy, Tavarez, Eldred, and Thompson are given from the right side. Likewise, King and Flores will likely fill out the roster. I really don't think that Wainwright and Johnson have a realistic shot to make the team. What about Anthony Reyes, though?

OPS Allowed (overall)

Al Reyes - 545
An Reyes - 546
Izzy - 595
Thompson - 647
Flores - 700
Eldred - 708
Tavarez - 765
King - 818

Off the bat, we miss Al Reyes. Anthony Reyes - in very limited work - was actually just as good as his (near) namesake.

OPS Allowed vs. Left

An Reyes - 426
Izzy - 495
Al Reyes - 547
Florez - 583
Thompson - 629
Eldred - 675
King - 680
Tavarez - 815

People are already saying that Al Reyes will be missed due to his ability to retire both right handed and left handed batters. Take a look at the splits of the other Reyes, though.

OPS Allowed vs. Right

Al Reyes - 544
An Reyes - 618
Thompson - 650
Izzy - 678
Eldred - 736
Tavarez - 745
Flores - 812
King - 981

Once again, Anthony Reyes is among the staff leaders. In fact, he leads this list when you factor in guys that can actually pitch tomorrow.

General Assessment

In general, I think an argument could easily be made that Anthony Reyes should be on the playoff roster. Maybe he doesn't get used in late situations due to the unknown factor, but recent history would suggest that that doesn't have to be an issue. (Francisco Rodriguez, Anaheim, 2002) I'm not 100% convinced that Anthony would completely replace Al, but I think the Cardinals could do worse. Such as, counting on Julian Tavarez and his 765 OPS allowed to pitch the 8th inning.

Randy Flores should be used as a LOOGY. (Left handed One Out GuY).

Ray King should be used as an extreme LOOGY.

Julian Tavarez, in all honestly, should be used as a ROOGY. (I don't think that's a real acronym, but I'm standing by my assessment!)

With those 3 guys limited to facing either lefties or righties, and Izzy limited to the 9th inning...well, that leaves 2 guys in the bullpen, plus a converted starter (Marquis, Morris, or Suppan.) Who is the 8th inning guy? Rookie Brad Thompson? Veteran Cal Eldred?

Seriously. Tony. For the love of Pete. Consider Anthony Reyes.

4 Comments:

At 9:44 AM, Blogger CalvinPitt said...

First, I think small sample size caveats for Anthony Reyes. Second, if you could get rid of Ray King, I would completely endorse adding Anthony Reyes, or if Tony insists on two lefties, then Tyler Johnson.

But I wouldn't be able to justify Reyes over Eldred or Thompson, both of whom I feel have done a good job in whatever bullpen role Tony throws them into (including a 3-inning "start" for Cal).

 
At 2:04 AM, Anonymous Nathan said...

Looks like the blogosphere needs a "do-not-call list"...

I wish we would've taken Little Reyes too...after subpar outings from Thompson and Eldred, maybe we'll see him in the LCS (knock on wood)...

 
At 5:04 PM, Blogger Birds-on-Batgirl said...

In Tony's ideal world, you could carry 27 pitchers into the playoffs and every one would be an OOGY.

I've read your blog for a while and I included a link to it on the blog I just started (birdsonbatgirl.blogspot.com)—I hope that's OK.

 
At 9:16 PM, Blogger Robb said...

I'm glad to see someone post a website that isn't spam! I'll include a link back to your blog in the next day or two.

 

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