Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Johnson Rumors

Now that I've gotten all of the reviews out of the way, I can focus on the present a bit. Tomorrow, I'll be writing an article on what I think the Cardinals should address. For now, though, I'd like to briefly call your attention to this little news article from Newsday.com. Namely, the following portion:

"It's believed the Chicago White Sox have offered first baseman Paul Konerko and righthander Jon Garland, and that the St. Louis Cardinals have proposed a package featuring lefthander Rick Ankiel and righthanders Kiko Calero and Danny Haren."

I like Randy Johnson, I really do. And I'd love to see the Cardinals featuring him at the front of their rotation next season. But Haren AND Ankiel AND Calero? Isn't that kind of nuts?

Yesterday I mentioned how fond I am of Calero, and that he has closer potential. Haren is young, cheap, and has the makings of a solid #2 or #3 starter. And we all know that Rick Ankiel still has great potential, even with the high risk of him ever truly coming back.

Last season, Randy Johnson had 25 Win Shares, compared to Calero having 5, Haren 1, and Ankiel 0. So yes - last year, Johnson was more valuable than all three of those guys combined. However, he will turn 42 during the 2005 season, while Haren, Calero, and Ankiel will all likely be on the Cardinals roster the entire year and thus having more value. (None of them were on the active roster the entire 2004 season). What's more - Johnson will make $16.5 million ($4 million deferred) next year, while the other three will combine to make less than $2 million.

Is one year - two years max - of Randy Johnson worth the 5 more years of Haren, 4 more of Calero, and 1 more of Ankiel? I just don't see it.

I don't think that any of the players in this trade rumor should be considered untouchable. A GM should always keep his options open. With that being said, I'll be upset if the Cardinals let more than two of them go to acquire Johnson.

(Disclaimer - I did not want the Cardinals to give up both Jimmy Journell and Bud Smith for Scott Rolen in 2002 when those rumors surfaced. That trade alone should show me two things. One, Walt may be as hesitant to give up too much young talent in a trade as I would be. Two, prospects are never a sure thing, as Journell being out of the system wouldn't have been a bad thing at all, while Smith has never been the same since the 2001 season.)

7 Comments:

At 3:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I had not heard this rumor, and I only have 3 things to say:

1. No
2. Please no.
3. God NO!!!

Other than that, you summed it up pretty well. All that talent and money is not worth 1, or maybe 2, years of Randy.

 
At 12:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems more likely that this rumor would be put forth by either the Diamondbacks or another team trying to drive up the cost of Johnson. Walt hasn't done much in the way of trading young talent. He usually likes to move veterans of questionable value (Drew, Bottenfield) or youngsters that have plateaued in the high minors (the detrius of the Walker trade).

-Iron_Throne

 
At 12:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems more likely that this rumor would be put forth by either the Diamondbacks or another team trying to drive up the cost of Johnson. Walt hasn't done much in the way of trading young talent. He usually likes to move veterans of questionable value (Drew, Bottenfield) or youngsters that have plateaued in the high minors (the detrius of the Walker trade).

-Iron_Throne

 
At 7:21 AM, Blogger Cardsgem said...

That is a pipe dream for Arizona if they think they are going to get that much for Johnson from the Cards. Walt is no dummy, and knows better than to offer way more than the worth of a player.

 
At 8:08 AM, Blogger Len said...

I tend to agree with the previous posters. When I read the rumor, the first thing that popped into my mind was "eating your seed corn", and I don't think Jocketty has ever done that in the past. Why should he start now?

Of the three, my inclinations are to say that Ankiel's the least untouchable, given the risk involved. Then again, when I think of Ankiel being traded away I think, "J.D. Drew", and ponder the possibility that we'd trade him away just as he's poised to stay healthy and have his breakout year.

I'm glad I'm not Jocketty; if I was you'd see Maalox stocks going waaaaaayyy up.....

 
At 3:22 PM, Blogger Socnorb11 said...

The folks on the PD board are reporting that Jocketty did a radio interview this afternoon (Wednesday) and said that the Ankiel/Haren/Calero rumors are totally fabricated, and "a joke".

That's good news, if it's true.

 
At 9:59 AM, Blogger Cardinal John said...

Trading 3 VERY young players looks bad. But if Johnson is enough to get us over the hump next year and we when a WS championship, Walt would look brilliant. I'm really divided on the thought. I would like to see us trading less though, upon taking Johnson's hefty contract.
-CJ

 

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