Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Odalis Perez Splits

No, he's not going anywhere, but I thought it might be nice to see how he does in various situations.

Batters

vs. Left - .283/.318/.494 - 812 OPS
vs. Right - .243/.281/.406 - 687 OPS

Looks like the Cardinals shouldn't consider starting Luna over Womack today. In fact, they could consider starting Mabry over Sanders, although I doubt we see it.

By Inning

Inning 1 - .212/.258/.327 - 526 OPS
Innings 1 to 3 - .243/.279/.408 - 647 OPS
Innings 4 to 6 - .268/.303/.432 - 735 OPS
Innings 7 to 9 - .235/.284/.500 - 784 OPS

Basically, the guy doesn't allow many baserunners, but appears to get into trouble due to giving up a lot of extra base hits.

By Pitch Count

Pitches 1 to 15 - .208/.236/.330 - 567 OPS
Pitches 16 to 30 - .280/.313/.480 - 793 OPS
Pitches 31 to 45 - .219/.266/.351 - 617 OPS
Pitches 46 to 60 - .261/.290/.417 - 708 OPS
Pitches 61 to 75 - .280/.328/.500 - 828 OPS
Pitches 76 to 90 - .315/.320/.533 - 853 OPS
Pitches 91 to 105 - .135/.250/.270 - 520 OPS (37 at-bats)
Pithces 106 to 120 - .286/.286/.714 - 1000 OPS (7 at-bats)

Granted, I don't know how these numbers compare to an average major league pitcher, as I assume most pitchers start showing signs of wear as the innings and pitches start piling up. However, looking at this data suggests a few things.

Perez doesn't normally have very high pitch counts, which makes sense, considering that he doesn't allow a lot of baserunners. This explains, in my opinion, why his OPS allowed in innings 7-9 is lower than his OPS allowed of pitch counts between 61 and 90.

Looking at these splits, I expect a few things. One, the Cards should be starting Womack, Walker, and Edmonds, with Mabry getting a nod over Sanders not out of the question. Two, the Cards should be trying to work the count and get Perez' pitch count up as quickly as possible. If the Cards can get him up to that 60 pitches thrown area early in the game, they have a chance to wear him down and score some runs.

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